SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 13 May 2023
⏱️ 67 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:33 - What happened this week?
06:56 - Industry performance update
08:38 - An interesting inflection point
16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms
21:25 - Why are people short today?
25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?
30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?
36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings
39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing
44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May
49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?
52:22 - The debt problem
01:01:09 - A society in decline
01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold
01:05:42 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.0 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.9 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Jim Kasang and I, Neil's Castlelarsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global market |
| 0:30.6 | through the lens of a rules-based investor. If you're new to the show, I hope that today's |
| 0:34.9 | episode will trigger your curiosity enough to check out the |
| 0:37.8 | back catalog and listen to the past episodes that you may have missed. Like my conversation with |
| 0:42.3 | Mark last week, where we discussed the topic of how to detect changes in trends and whether |
| 0:47.8 | you should use economic data in addition to just looking at price in your investment strategy. |
| 0:53.7 | Also, I would really encourage you to listen to the midweek episode, which admittedly will not |
| 0:58.0 | be for everyone, as it is somewhat politically charged. |
| 1:01.3 | But the topic is nevertheless incredibly important as it deals with the dangers to democracy |
| 1:06.8 | that the Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf lays out in his new book |
| 1:13.0 | The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, which he explains why, in his view, the marriage between |
| 1:19.7 | democracy and capitalism is breaking down. |
| 1:22.8 | Lastly, I am excited to let you know that in our CTA mini-series, where Alan and I have been privileged to speak |
| 1:29.3 | with some of the decision makers of the most successful CTAs in the world, |
| 1:33.9 | we have another episode planned, |
| 1:35.6 | which will come out within the next couple of weeks. |
| 1:38.5 | And in the meantime, if you haven't listened to the previous episodes, |
| 1:41.9 | I certainly encourage you to go and check out that series. |
| 1:44.9 | So anyway, head over and check it all out after you're done listening to Jim and me today. |
| 1:50.0 | Jim, it is always great to be back with you. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.