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Top Traders Unplugged

SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 13 May 2023

⏱️ 67 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 - What happened this week?

06:56 - Industry performance update

08:38 - An interesting inflection point

16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms

21:25 - Why are people short today?

25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?

30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?

36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings

39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing

44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May

49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?

52:22 - The debt problem

01:01:09 - A society in decline

01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold

01:05:42 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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Transcript

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0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.0

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:26.9

Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Jim Kasang and I, Neil's Castlelarsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global market

0:30.6

through the lens of a rules-based investor. If you're new to the show, I hope that today's

0:34.9

episode will trigger your curiosity enough to check out the

0:37.8

back catalog and listen to the past episodes that you may have missed. Like my conversation with

0:42.3

Mark last week, where we discussed the topic of how to detect changes in trends and whether

0:47.8

you should use economic data in addition to just looking at price in your investment strategy.

0:53.7

Also, I would really encourage you to listen to the midweek episode, which admittedly will not

0:58.0

be for everyone, as it is somewhat politically charged.

1:01.3

But the topic is nevertheless incredibly important as it deals with the dangers to democracy

1:06.8

that the Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf lays out in his new book

1:13.0

The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, which he explains why, in his view, the marriage between

1:19.7

democracy and capitalism is breaking down.

1:22.8

Lastly, I am excited to let you know that in our CTA mini-series, where Alan and I have been privileged to speak

1:29.3

with some of the decision makers of the most successful CTAs in the world,

1:33.9

we have another episode planned,

1:35.6

which will come out within the next couple of weeks.

1:38.5

And in the meantime, if you haven't listened to the previous episodes,

1:41.9

I certainly encourage you to go and check out that series.

1:44.9

So anyway, head over and check it all out after you're done listening to Jim and me today.

1:50.0

Jim, it is always great to be back with you.

...

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