SI180: Data Versus Stories & The "Moscow Rules" ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 19 February 2022
⏱️ 77 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
In this episode, we discuss:
- How Trend Following differs to momentum
- Avoiding the need to make predictions
- The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
- ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
- The similarities between Trend Following and options
- How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
- Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
- The “Moscow Rules"
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:02 – Macro recap from Niels
04:39 – Weekly review of performance
23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?
28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk
42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?
47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum
01:00:58 – Molecules of prices
01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’
01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update
01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:
https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
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And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:25.9 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Mark Rissensinski and I, Neil's Castle Larsson, where each week we take the pulse |
| 0:30.2 | of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:34.3 | For those of you who are regular listener, this podcast series is all about voicing |
| 0:37.9 | our differences on the one topic that brings us together, namely systematic investing, |
| 0:43.3 | using the often overlooked but very robust strategy of trend following. We hope that today's |
| 0:48.5 | episode will trigger your curiosity to learn more by diving into the back catalog and listen |
| 0:53.2 | to all the past episodes that |
| 0:54.8 | you may have missed. |
| 0:56.2 | Like last week's episode with Alan, where we discussed how the change of tone from central |
| 1:01.4 | banks can affect markets globally and how trend following performs or has performed historically |
| 1:07.5 | in a rising interest rate environment and the case for and against |
| 1:12.2 | including carry trades in a trend following portfolio. |
| 1:14.8 | So if you miss that one, I invite you to go back and listen to that episode. |
| 1:20.4 | Mark, it's great to be back with you this week. |
| 1:22.8 | It hasn't been that long. |
| 1:24.8 | But after another eventful week and a busy month for those who follow the Fed or the |
| 1:28.7 | geopolitics that's happening around us, how are you doing, how things where you are? |
| 1:33.7 | Good. Thanks to have me back. It's middle of winter here, but it's turned out to be a beautiful |
| 1:39.3 | sunny day and a little bit on the warm side. So as usual, it's warm in the northern United States, |
| 1:47.1 | so natural gas prices fall. |
... |
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