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Science Friday

Should We Trust Election Forecasting, COVID Dreams. Oct 23, 2020, Part 1

Science Friday

Science Friday and WNYC Studios

Natural Sciences, Wnyc, Science, Friday, Life Sciences

4.46.3K Ratings

🗓️ 23 October 2020

⏱️ 47 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The first “scientific” election poll was conducted in 1936 by George Gallup, who correctly predicted that Franklin D. Roosevelt would win the presidential election. Since Gallup, our appetite for polls and forecasts has only grown, but watching the needle too closely might have some unintended side effects. Solomon Messing, chief scientist at ACRONYM, a political digital strategy nonprofit, tells us about a study he co-authored that found people are often confused by what forecast numbers mean, and that their confidence in an election’s outcome might depress voter turnout. Sunshine Hillygus, professor of political science and public policy at Duke University, also joins to tell us about the history of polling in the United States. Next up, say you're standing in a crowded room and realizing nobody is wearing a mask. Or a family dog that has passed away protectively guarding grandkids. Maybe having a pleasant get-together with someone you haven’t thought of in years, then suddenly realizing everyone is a little too close, and a little too sick. Do any of these instances sound familiar? A few weeks ago, we asked Science Friday listeners if their dreams have changed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We heard from many listeners who said yes, their dreams have become more vivid, with elements of the pandemic included. A change in dreams due to a crisis is very common, says Deirdre Barrett, a dream researcher and assistant professor of psychology at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. When we’re in a dream state, the brain is processing the same things we think about during the day. But when we’re asleep, the parts of our brain that handle logic and speech are damped down. The parts that handle visuals, however, are ramped up. Barrett has been collecting dreams from people all over the world since the start of the pandemic. She says common dream themes range from actually getting the virus, natural disasters and bug attacks. Healthcare workers have regularly reported the highest level of stressful COVID-19 dreams, according to her data. “The typical dream from the healthcare workers is really a full-on nightmare,” Barrett says. “Just as bad as you’d see in war zones.” Barrett joins SciFri producer Kathleen Davis to talk about her research into crisis dreams, and what people can do if they want to experience stressful dreams less often. And, search engine giant Google was served an antitrust lawsuit by the Justice Department this week, which alleges the company abuses its near-monopoly status to harm consumers and competitors. This is the first such action against the company, which, over the last couple decades, has grown into one of the more powerful tech companies in history.  Meanwhile, early data from New York City schools shows a promising picture of what back-to-school in the age of COVID means. Out of more than 16,000 randomly tested students and staff members, only 28 positive results came back—20 from staff members, and eight from students. While COVID-19 cases in K-12 schools across the country are not zero, low rates are the norm so far.  Joining Ira to talk about these stories and other news from the week is Nsikan Akpan, a science editor at National Geographic in Washington, D.C.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is Science Friday. I'm Ira Flato. One of the world's biggest tech giants found itself in legal trouble this week.

0:07.0

Google was served an antitrust lawsuit by the U.S. Justice Department. The suit argues the company has unfair business practices,

0:15.9

like how it pays other massive tech companies to be the default search engine on other devices. So what does this all

0:23.4

mean? Joining me today to break down this and other news of the week is a Sikhan Akpan, Science Editor at

0:31.2

National Geographic in Washington. Welcome back, Seekad. Thanks. Thank goodness it's Friday.

0:37.5

How's it? Yes, yes. It. Thanks. Thank goodness. It's Friday. How's it going?

0:38.0

Yes.

0:38.9

It's been a long week.

0:41.6

Tell us what the Justice Department is saying that Google did.

0:45.8

So the Justice Department in 11 states say that Google has created an illegal monopoly with its business practices surrounding its search engine.

0:55.2

They argue that Google has stifled competition by paying billions of dollars to mobile phone

1:00.8

manufacturers like Apple or LG or Motorola or Samsung to prioritize its search engine and its

1:08.1

Chrome browser on those devices.

1:10.5

And then on the back end, Google pumps advertisements alongside those search results, right?

1:15.8

You know, every time you search for your favorite pizza place, it's going to come up with a

1:20.2

suggested result.

1:22.2

And that comes with a huge payout.

1:24.3

Last year, Google's search revenue was $98 billion, and its ad revenue amounted to

1:31.0

almost $135 billion. Wow. So this is a big deal there. Yeah, this is enormous. I mean, it's not only

1:40.1

the first antitrust action against Google, which I should say is technically owned by a company

1:46.2

called Alphabet now. But it's also the most consequential antitrust suit against a big tech company

1:51.7

since 1998, when the DOJ and 20 states file charges against Microsoft. In that case, the DOJ was

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