Should We Ever Trust Polls Again? (with Carl Allen)
Politics Politics Politics
Justin Robert Young
4.6 • 870 Ratings
🗓️ 15 November 2024
⏱️ 72 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Things polling get right in 2024:
* Trump had a chance to win the popular vote (he did)
* Trump had an advantage in the Sun Belt but the races in the Rust Belt would be closer (true, Trump still won them all)
* Ticket splitting is real and could save Democrats from a Senate demolition (it did)
But beyond that… we have some real questions.
Carl Allen believed Kamala Harris was a favorite to win the electoral college. Together we go through the results and find lessons big and small.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | On this edition of the program, we talked to real Carl Allen to find out if the polls were right in 2024 and what we should think about them going forward. |
| 0:10.3 | It's all coming up. |
| 0:13.3 | The following is brought to you by just another pilot. |
| 0:20.4 | Politics, politics, politics, politics. |
| 0:22.6 | Politics. |
| 0:23.6 | Hello and welcome, politics, |
| 0:43.3 | program for November 15th, 2024-year-old pal, |
| 0:48.8 | Justin Robert Young, joining you here. |
| 0:51.1 | A lot going on. |
| 0:53.2 | We're going to get into the update a little bit later in the show with all the news. |
| 0:58.3 | Matt Gates' ethics investigation in the House leaked to ABC. We have RFK Jr. getting health and human |
| 1:08.5 | services. RFK Jr., now a member of the Trump administration, and more. |
| 1:13.6 | But before we do any of that, |
| 1:15.6 | I wanted to bring on one of the voices that we liked the most |
| 1:19.6 | in the waning days of the 2024 campaign, |
| 1:22.6 | talking about not only polling, |
| 1:25.6 | but also how we should think about polling. |
| 1:28.4 | You guys heard me a lot when I talked about polls that were coming in to not look at the spread |
| 1:36.5 | Donald Trump plus two, plus three, Harris plus one plus two, but rather to look at vote share, |
| 1:45.0 | because that was gonna give you a better indication |
| 1:47.8 | of how things would end up. |
| 1:49.9 | And us looking at that tended to be predictive |
... |
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