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Modern War Institute

Securing NATO's Baltic Flank

Modern War Institute

John Amble

Government, News

4.7798 Ratings

🗓️ 10 August 2023

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the world has seen firsthand evidence of the threat posed by the revanchist state. Among those who perceive this threat most acutely are the three Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The fundamental facts of these states’ existence—their comparatively small size, proximity to Russia, and position on the northeastern flank of the NATO alliance—combine to make the threat both direct and real. But what can NATO do to deter Russian military aggression against the three countries in the future—and defend against that aggression should it occur? This episode tackles that question and features a discussion with Mark Cancian. A senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, he is the author of a recently published report, “Repel, Don’t Expel: Strengthening NATO’s Defense and Deterrence in the Baltic States.” He joins the podcast to share some of the insights and conclusions featured in the report.

Transcript

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0:00.0

But long term, there is a threat from the Russians.

0:07.0

That is, at some point, they will rebuild this military capability.

0:10.0

No matter what the Baltics do, they are not going to be able to defend themselves.

0:16.0

They are going to have to have help from NATO.

0:27.9

It's important for Europe because this is really going to be a European problem.

0:35.6

Hey, welcome back to the Modern War Institute podcast. I'm John Ambo, editorial director at MWI,

0:38.1

and on this episode, I'm joined by Mark Kansion,

0:43.4

a retired Marine colonel and a senior advisor with the International Security Program at CSIS,

0:46.0

the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

0:52.0

He is also the author of a recent report published by CSIS on defense and deterrence in the Baltic states,

0:56.0

specifically how NATO can contribute to both. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania face a unique threat landscape.

0:59.0

All three border Russia, for example, so last year's Russian invasion of Ukraine naturally raises fears

1:05.0

of future aggression by Russia's military targeting one or all of these countries.

1:10.0

Moscow has also meddled in all three in the past,

1:11.6

including by seeking distoke grievances among the sizable Russian-speaking population spread across the Baltics.

1:17.6

Anybody who has watched Russia's approach to Ukraine over the past decade will recognize that playbook.

1:22.6

But how can NATO best contribute to deterring Russian military action against these three

1:27.5

alliance members and defending against such an action if it occurs?

1:31.7

That's the focus of the discussion you're about to hear.

1:34.3

Before we get to it, a couple quick notes.

1:36.6

First, if you're not yet subscribed to the MWI podcast, you can find it on Apple Podcast,

1:40.6

Stitcher, tune in, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.

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