This is John Patchler, conversation with my colleague Josh Rogan about polymarket.

Who's making these big bets down to the minutes before a decision is made about Iran or the markets?

Who's making them?

And how are they winning so repeatedly?

Who?

Josh asks very carefully.

He builds the case and asks who. And then he brings in Occam's razor. More of this tonight. Josh Rogan. Right. I mean, what Torres and many other lawmakers are saying is that it's just common sense, that nobody is this lucky. And, you know, some people will say, well, Trump sets all these deadlines and then he always chickens out.

So some people may just be betting that he chickened out.

But to move that amount of money that quickly, within minutes, you know, that something an announcement is made. And then having the sort of skill and wherewithal to be able to cover your tracks such that you won't get caught right away. There's a very small

circle of people who have the access, the insider information, and the sheer, you know,

business acumen and dollars to pull off that kind of heist four times in a row within a month.

It's not that many people. Could it be like the Ayatollah and the Iranians?

Like, I don't know, maybe. Could it be the Israelis? Maybe they got a line in on when the tweets coming out.

But Akams Razor says it's someone who's close to the Trump administration because most of the actions happened right before the Trump administration does something.