This is John Batchel, a conversation with my colleague, Anato Levin, of the politics of the war in Iran,

with the expected shortages, with the price spikes in energy, with the unavailability of adequate fertilizer to plant the fields.

We're looking at the secondary and tertiary effects, and that leads to the Bundestag and

AFD, which is decidedly anti-NATO, anti-US, and pro-Moscow.

And then there's the question of national rally, looking to be a dominant force in the

government in France, which is not favorable to Ukraine, not favorable to the United States,

is very much a nationalist organization. These are the effects of the war in Iran and the

shortage of oil and how long that continues will determine how strong these voices become.

In Germany, they're asking now, why is it exactly

we're not availing ourselves of Russian energy, given what we have right now is a crisis?

More of this tonight. Here's Anatole.

Well, certainly in Germany, yes, because the mainstream parties are determined to keep

AFD out. And if AFD keeps on rising in the polls and at the next Bundestag, national elections,

gains a much larger number of seats, it could make, well, it would force a permanent government of coalition of all the other parties.

But eventually it could make it arithmetically impossible to create a governing majority in

parliament. And Germany would then be on the same road as we've seen in France in recent years, where, you know, the radical right has not, of course, gained power.

But the simultaneous rise of the radical right and the radical left has meant that the governing parties of the centre find it impossible to govern, basically, to push through

reforms and laws. So yes, there are huge implications here for European politics. If, of course,

this war continues, and if the price of energy continues to rise and if the supply of fertilizer is still cut off.