I'm John Batchler. I welcome my colleague and friend of many years, Gordon Chang at Gordon G. Chang, and we're very

pleased to bring on our colleague who is wonderfully in the paradise of Penang, Malaysia, Charles,

Charles, to comment on not just the fog of war, but also the overwhelming uncertainty introduced since Liberation Day,

April 1st, 2025.

And since the outbreak of this present conflict, February 28, 2026, we have a combination of total

uncertainty on the markets, totally uncertainty on the seas,

certainly in the skies, and in the combat zone.

I begin with one fact that weighs on me these last days and underlines that this is no longer a regional war.

It's a wider war.

That is that, as of several days ago,

there were said to be 3,400 ships of all types trapped inside the Persian Gulf, unable to

come out because the Strait of Hormuz is considered shot by the Iranian regime. 3,400 ships, not only tankers filled with oil and other liquids necessary for

world commerce, but container ships and freighters.

Everything backed up.

Now, there's a humanitarian crisis because they're not allowed to land.

They're running out of food and water on those ships.

At the same time, it'll take months to clear them. Last time anything like this had happened,

there were 400 ships collected together, and it took months to clear that.

3,400 is going to take perhaps half a year, perhaps a full year to clear.

In the meantime, worldwide trade is badly damaged.

There are not enough containers, and all those ships are scheduled to be at this port and that port,

and they're now delayed, and they have to find substitutes.

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