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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep1133: Michael Bernstam explores Houthi threats to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which could drive oil prices over $100 per barrel by choking global shipping. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled Russian refining capacity and shipping in the Black S

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Books, News, Society & Culture, Arts

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 16 July 2026

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Michael Bernstam explores Houthi threats to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which could drive oil prices over $100 per barrel by choking global shipping. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled Russian refining capacity and shipping in the Black Sea, leading to energy rationing, electricity shortages, and potential food crises in Crimea. (2)

Transcript

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0:00.0

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This is a high risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong. I'm John Batchett with Michael Bernstam in the Hoover Institution, and we're watching two wars become one more.

0:52.6

But there's a third element introduced in headlines in these last

0:56.2

hours. Iran is now threatening the Red Sea and Babel Mandeb with the Houthis. What does that mean

1:02.0

for the price of oil, for the price of energy, Michael? If they're successful with limiting

1:08.6

the shipment of oil in the Baban Maldab, these oil prices are bound

1:15.1

to go up. Already, when this war started, and already because of the risks and insurance costs,

1:23.6

already the oil supplies through the Bab and Maldab about half, because it used to be the time

1:31.2

normal traffic was about 70 tankers, 70 ships through Bab and Maldab per day.

1:39.1

It's much less than the Strait of Hormuz.

1:41.7

The Strait of Hormuz was 138, so Babel Mandeb was about half of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was 138, so Babel Mandeb was about half of the Strait of Hormuz in rough numbers.

1:50.4

But now it's down by half.

1:51.9

Now it is 30 to 40 ships per day.

1:54.8

The hood is cannot physically close Babin Mandeb.

1:58.3

Because they don't have the Navy, they don't have physical capacity.

2:02.3

It's not all in their territory, but what they can do, they can shoot at ships.

...

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