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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep1112: Anatol Lieven explores a potential peace compromise and the risks of escalation. He notes that while Ukraine can make Russia suffer via drone strikes on energy infrastructure, aerial bombardment alone will not force a surrender. A single miscalculation co

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Arts, Society & Culture, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 10 July 2026

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Anatol Lieven explores a potential peace compromise and the risks of escalation. He notes that while Ukraine can make Russia suffer via drone strikes on energy infrastructure, aerial bombardment alone will not force a surrender. A single miscalculation could lead to a direct clash between Russia and NATO. (2)
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Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Batchel with my colleague, Anatole, even the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

0:21.2

Anatole, in getting ready to speak to you, I all of a sudden saw something that I had not seen for weeks.

0:27.5

Drones and choke points of energy.

0:30.5

That describes both conflicts.

0:33.3

Although there's no other content, I can think, that has a connection between Ukraine and Iran, between Russia and Washington,

0:43.2

but energy choke points struck by drones.

0:47.1

They're following the same war with the slight detail that Russia might be on the losing side at that war, and the U.S. might be on the losing side at that war and the U.S. might be on the

0:56.1

losing side in its war.

0:58.3

Do you follow that logic?

1:00.9

Well, yes, but I think to a degree this is an old lesson that you do not bring the other side

1:10.7

to surrender simply through aerial bombardment.

1:15.0

Look, the Russians have been intensively attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure for years now.

1:23.8

Last winter in Ukraine was, you know, very severe.

1:27.2

There was serious suffering as a result of the damage to the infrastructure. Did the... Last winter in Ukraine was, you know, very severe.

1:30.6

There was serious suffering as a result of the damage to the infrastructure.

1:32.7

Did the Ukrainian surrender?

1:33.5

No.

1:37.8

Did this help Russia conquer territory on the ground?

1:38.8

No.

2:02.5

Will – has what the U.S. has been doing brought down the Iranian regime? No. No. It hasn't. No. Go on. Yeah, I like this. I get to say. Well, no, I mean, the point is that, you know, Ukraine can make Russia suffer. No question. Russia has made Ukraine suffer very badly. The U.S. has inflicted great damage on Iran. Including attacking railroad lines as they're doing in Russia. Yes, exactly.

2:07.6

Well, precisely. But as long as the regimes in place are determined not to surrender and have sufficient public support, not to be,

2:21.1

you know, to enable them to go on resisting or fighting, this is not going to work. And it isn't

...

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