S8 Ep110: PREVIEW NATO Dilemma: Responding to Russian Aggression in Estonia (2028 Scenario) Jakub Grygiel Jakub Grygiel's book, If Russia Wins, explores a scenario years from now where Russia takes the city of Narva in Estonia after a frozen conflict in Ukraine. T
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 22 November 2025
⏱️ 3 minutes
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Summary
NATO Dilemma: Responding to Russian Aggression in Estonia (2028 Scenario)
Jakub Grygiel
Jakub Grygiel's book, If Russia Wins, explores a scenario years from now where Russia takes the city of Narva in Estonia after a frozen conflict in Ukraine. This action forces NATO to decide whether to invoke Article Five. Responding militarily is difficult because it would likely involve escalation, requiring NATO to strike logistical bases, missile installations, and airports within Russia proper.
Transcript
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| 0:31.0 | This is John Batchel, colleague Jacob Grigel, writing for Civitas Institute of a new book, If Russia Wins, it's published in Europe. |
| 0:40.4 | It's in English now, I understand, many languages. |
| 0:43.7 | It proposes that it's several years from now, 2008, and there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, frozen front lines, similar to what we have right now. |
| 0:55.8 | And Europe is at peace, and all is serene and back to business as usual. |
| 1:00.2 | And then Russia takes the city of Nerva and an island off of Nerva in Estonia and sits there. |
| 1:09.7 | What is to be done? |
| 1:11.3 | What does NATO do now? |
| 1:13.1 | Does it go to war? |
| 1:14.3 | Article 5? |
| 1:15.5 | Or is Yaakov to comment on the dilemma that comes to NATO when Russia takes a small bite and waits. |
| 1:25.8 | After it took a big bite out of Ukraine and waited and then attacked. Now in several |
| 1:33.3 | years, 2028, it's just waiting. Your move, NATO. Much more of this tonight. |
| 1:39.6 | The thinking of NATO, according to book, is that the situation is confused. |
| 1:45.8 | Those are the words, I think, in the book of the French president, |
| 1:49.3 | and therefore, you know, more thought has to be given on the situation. |
| 1:54.2 | And in general, there is some worry or some opposition to a military response because a military response to this Russian |
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