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This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Russia-Ukraine deal – Can anyone force Putin to change course?

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Podmasters

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.81.6K Ratings

🗓️ 4 December 2025

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Trump’s push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine looks as far away as ever after failed talks this week – can anyone move Putin closer to a realistic agreement?   To  make sense of the US-led peace process so far and how a potential deal might realistically be achieved, Gavin Esler is  joined by Steven Pifer, former US ambassador to Ukraine, an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and the author of The Eagle and the Trident: U.S.-Ukraine Relations in Turbulent Times. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill  to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

There was a moment a few days ago when it looked as if Donald Trump had made Ukraine's

0:06.4

President Zelensky an offer that could have been written by Vladimir Putin himself.

0:11.9

Seed to Russia everything Moscow wants.

0:14.8

Then it became more complicated.

0:16.9

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been active in negotiations.

0:20.4

Mr. Trump's special envoy,

0:21.6

Steve Whitkoff, continues to be chummy with the Kremlin key players.

0:25.6

The Europeans have been trying to find a way into the discussions after Zelensky met

0:30.6

Emmanuel Macron in Paris with other European leaders on the line too.

0:34.6

But any real deal seems as elusive as ever. To try to make sense of what's

0:39.7

going on and what peace could look like, we're going to hear from a US arms control expert

0:44.6

and former ambassador to Ukraine. I'm Gavin Esler, and this is not a drill. Stephen Pfeiffer is a former US ambassador to Ukraine, an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and the author of The Eagle and the Trident, U.S.-Ukraine Relations in turbulent times. Stephen, well, we can say those times

1:31.3

may have changed, but they're still turbulent. Can we begin with the battlefield? Putin claims Russia

1:37.0

has taken a key target, Pukrovsk. How significant is this? Because Ukraine says you've got a bit

1:42.9

of it, but you haven't got all of it.

1:44.2

I mean, do we really know what's going on in the battlefield?

1:47.0

No, I think it's clear that the Russians probably have most of Prakos, but they have not taken

1:52.6

all of it at this point. But it's important to remember the Russian army has been trying to

1:57.4

take Percos now for 18 months. And that I think is something that people need to

2:03.1

bear in mind about the broader picture of the battlefield. Over the last two years, Russia has gone

2:08.1

from occupying about 17% of Ukraine to about 19%. So they've acquired about 2% more territory in two

2:14.3

years. At 19%, that's still one-third less than what Russia occupied at their

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