#RUSSIA: Three lessons from the sanctions so far. Michael Bernstam, Hoover INSTITUTION
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 7 March 2024
⏱️ 9 minutes
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#RUSSIA: Three lessons from the sanctions so far. Michael Bernstam, Hoover INSTITUTION
https://on.ft.com/437c4ob
1896 CORONATION NICHOLAS AND ALEXANDRA PETERSBURG
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| 0:00.0 | Book your ticket to happiness with Sun Express Airlines. This is a |
| 0:28.0 | is CBS I on the world with John Bachelor. Here's John Bachelor. |
| 0:30.0 | Michael Bernstein, my good colleague at the Hoover Institution, my guide on sanctions against Russia |
| 0:37.6 | after the invasion of Ukraine, which happened twice, if you'll recall, 2014 and 2022. Three lessons, according to the Financial |
| 0:46.1 | Times. The first one, it is important for you to understand that states that are about |
| 0:52.1 | to be sanctioned or think they will start early to prepare defenses. |
| 0:56.0 | Russia didn't start in 2022. |
| 0:59.0 | Russia started in 2014 and made adjustments that were severe in order to prepare for the sanctions. |
| 1:07.0 | Michael, a very good evening to you, the first lesson is it |
| 1:13.2 | the lesson also is if you go to sanction a country be ready for the fact that they've got |
| 1:19.2 | defenses in place? At this point is it too late to do anything about those defenses? |
| 1:26.0 | Good evening to you, Michael. |
| 1:27.0 | Good evening to you, and it is correct that the sanctions started in 2014, 2015, after the first annexation of the Ukrainian territories |
| 1:38.3 | by Russia. |
| 1:39.5 | And what is interesting, they made a much bigger effect than, and they were very mild sanctions, then the |
| 1:46.3 | effects they didn't do 20-22-23. |
| 1:49.6 | And the Russians lost 4.7% of their gross domestic product in 2014, 2015 because of the financial |
| 1:56.9 | sanctions and namely what happened that at that time they had to repay a lot of external debt to European banks and their Eurobonds |
| 2:06.8 | and they didn't have the money so they had to defeat their foreign exchange reserves, |
| 2:10.8 | they reduced their money supplies, they paid the debt, they had lower credit, low investment |
| 2:16.3 | in the economy, altogether the money supply shrank, the production shrank, they lost part of GDP. |
| 2:22.3 | But because of that, they were lucky later because they |
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