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War on the Rocks

Russia's Plan to Stay in the War

War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.61.1K Ratings

🗓️ 26 September 2022

⏱️ 36 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

After Ukraine's stunning Kharkiv counter-offensive, Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his war against Ukraine, announcing a large military mobilization, threatening nuclear use, and pressing ahead with referenda in territories Russia has seized from Urkaine. Can Putin salvage his campaign? Michael Kofman helps us understand these issues and more, encouraging people to think more temporally about Russia's mobilization pipeline and delivering a warning: We are in uncharted territory.

Transcript

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0:00.0

You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on strategy, defense and foreign affairs.

0:15.3

My name is Ryan Evans and I'm sitting here again with Mike Kaufman to update all of us on what's been

0:20.6

happening in and around Ukraine. Thanks again for being on the show, Mike.

0:24.1

No, thanks for having me back.

0:25.2

Last time we spoke was in the aftermath of Ukraine's

0:28.2

amazing success in the Kharkiv counter-offensive.

0:32.3

The news now, of course, is that Putin has announced a partial mobilization but

0:36.9

before we get to that which everyone is focusing on for good reason let's

0:40.6

talk about what's been happening on the various fronts in the war in the last couple weeks.

0:45.0

So I think that after the immediate break of the heark of offense of Russian forces withdrew from much of the

0:52.3

hearker region.

0:53.3

They initially attempted to defend the Aliento Oskill River,

0:57.7

but have since somewhat fallen back from it.

1:00.3

Ukrainian forces have established a small beach at a cross

1:04.7

server in the rail hub town of Kupiansk. There's been quite a bit of fighting

1:10.1

at a southern pocket of maybe in more of a northern southern pocket where Heikov and Deneyats go Bosemey around the town of Lehman.

1:18.0

Ukrainian forces over the last two weeks have been trying to still develop it and take it. There's been pretty fierce Russian resistance there.

1:26.2

When you sort of look at the battlefield post-Hartkove, I think the two things you see is

1:32.1

Ukrainian effort to consolidate a lot of territory they gained and an effort to continue pushing at more the southern edges to try to establish a better position, maybe if not for a follow-on offensive then, to essentially

1:47.2

have better positions going into the winter.

1:50.5

Russian force have tried to re-consulate their lines on Luhansk after this dramatic retreat.

1:55.0

They have surprisingly been pushing still in the Nesk against Bachmut, with the Bachmut Severesk Line, and they've actually been making incremental

...

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