Russia Downscales Its War, But Not in Brutality
War on the Rocks
War on the Rocks
4.6 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 11 April 2022
⏱️ 27 minutes
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Summary
Michael Kofman joined Ryan once more to update us all on the war in Ukraine. In this episode, Kofman explains how and why Russia is refocusing on the east of Ukraine, what the war in Syria revealed about shortcomings in Russian air force, and what Ukrainian forces need in terms of weaponry and supply to win this war. The two also discuss Russian war crimes and their relation to the Russian military's internal culture of violence and hazing as well as Vladimir Putin's framing of this war of "de-nazification." The conversation ended with Kofman explaining Moscow's big military manpower decision, which you may have missed, and how it connects to Putin's difficult strategic position.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense and Foreign Affairs. |
| 0:16.0 | My name is Ryan Evans, of War on the Rocks, of course. I'm sitting here again with Michael Kaufman, |
| 0:20.8 | head of the CNA Russia team here to help us understand what's been happening with |
| 0:26.4 | Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Mike thanks for joining us again. |
| 0:31.3 | How is the nature of this war changed in the last couple weeks? |
| 0:37.0 | Well, we've seen a Russian withdrawal from Kiev in the northern parts of Ukraine. |
| 0:42.0 | It's essentially been a defeat for Russia and they've, I think, |
| 0:45.8 | accepted that along with that, they've also had a defeat in the campaign |
| 0:49.4 | in the southwest to get around Mikhailovai after Adessa. |
| 0:52.8 | They've reorganized the operation now |
| 0:54.6 | to try to focus on the Dunbar. |
| 0:57.0 | That means that, well, they probably have really revised |
| 1:00.1 | their war aims now to try to find something they can salvage from the operation and the clear victory. |
| 1:07.1 | Some folks think that they're desperate to show results by May 9th, which is the Victory Day Parade. |
| 1:12.6 | I think that's true, although I'm skeptical that they're going to be able to take the Dunbarse |
| 1:15.9 | by then, if at all, just to be clear. |
| 1:18.4 | But I think they're looking for some sort of wins that they can use politically. You have a real reorganization of the |
| 1:25.6 | Russian military effort. Now we're essentially in a phase two and this phase |
| 1:30.6 | is going to look I think quite different from the first one. |
| 1:33.2 | Not to say that the Russian military is necessarily going to perform better or will get |
| 1:38.0 | dramatically different force employment on their end, but it's a different fight. |
| 1:43.0 | This was switching to more of a set-piece battle between a large grouping of Ukrainian forces in the Dunbarse, |
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