Roger Pielke Jr: "Understanding the Origins of Climate Models"

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens

Science, Earth Sciences, Natural Sciences

4.8 • 553 Ratings

🗓️ 26 July 2023

⏱️ 78 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society - an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom?

About Roger Pielke Jr.

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack - The Honest Broker - where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/81-roger-pielke

To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/T6Nx4SYZIvQ

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to The Great Simplification with Nate Higgins.
0:06.3	That's me.
0:07.7	On this show, we try to explore and simplify what's happening with energy, the economy, the environment, in our society.
0:17.0	Together with scientists, experts, and leaders, this show is about understanding the bird's eye view of how everything fits together, where we go from here and what we can do about it as a society and as individuals.
0:32.9	The impacts from climate change on our temperatures, on wildfires, on ocean heat currently around Florida are approaching 100 degrees, have been in the news.
0:47.1	This podcast is going to be about climate research and climate journalism.
0:55.4	And I'm aware that to those listeners who think humans are going extinct in the next two decades,
1:03.7	I'm not going to reach them ever with this sort of podcast.
1:08.6	To those humans who think that climate change is a socialist, globalist hoax,
1:14.6	and that the climate has always warmed and it will warm again,
1:18.6	and humans have a negligible role, I will never convince those people either.
1:23.6	But there are many people in between who know that climate change is happening.
1:30.3	It's largely caused by humans pulling up ancient carbon and emitting it 10 million times faster than it was sequestered.
1:41.4	So we want to understand what paths are still remain and which ones are
1:49.3	fantastical. My guest today is Roger Pilke, a professor of environmental science and policy
1:56.8	at the University of Colorado. Roger and I talk about the historical architecture of the representative concentration
2:08.1	pathway scenarios in the IPCC.
2:12.4	The fact that many of these are exogenously created. They had nothing to do with science. They
2:19.0	measured a certain amount of GDP in the year 2100. The bottom line is that the amount of fossil
2:26.5	fuels that are affordable and extractable probably is a fraction of what some of the early climate models show.
2:36.0	On the flip side, the biological feedback mechanisms that we're facing are probably higher than was originally estimated.
2:46.0	Roger and I also talk about what was the deal with two degrees Celsius.
	...

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