The Spectator magazine is the greatest magazine of English language. Subscribe today for just £12

£12 and receive a 12-week subscription in print and online to see for yourselves. Also, against my advice as editor, we're giving away a free £20 £10,000 or Waitrose voucher.

Given that you're spending £12, you can do the maths. Go to spectator.com.uk forward slash voucher. But don't

hurry because this offer probably loses us money.

Hello and welcome to the Americano podcast, a series of discussions about American politics, power and prejudices.

This year, 2024, is an election year in America, a presidential election year. And so we will be doing two podcasts a week, rather than our usual one, because we want to and because we know you can't get enough

Americano in your life.

I am delighted to be joined here at the Spectators' offices by Nate Silver, who I probably

don't need to introduce, but I will say that he is the world's most famous election

prognosticator.

And he has written a book, a new book called On the Edge the Art of Risking

Everything. It's a fascinating read Nate and it's a pretty eclectic book I think to use an overused word.

First of all I'd like to say during an election year when everybody wants to talk to you about an

American election I know your book The Signal and the Noise came out in 2012 which is another election year when everybody wants to talk to you about an American election, I know your book, The Signal and the Noise came out in 2012, which was another election year.

But that was probably more related to what you do or what you're most known for.

Whereas this feels like a bit of a gamble, because you're talking about gambling and you're talking about risk.

Yeah, look, if I never had to cover another election, I would still have a happy life.

I'd be perfectly happy with that.

I don't really like the people in American politics very much, right?

I think sometimes I'm too much in the spotlight for this stuff.

Trying to provide like a more arm's length kind of rational voice to have a little bit of fun with it

to help explain probability and things like that to people but like um like you know I am not like a

...