Redfin Forecast Signals Softening, Housing Market Reaches “Tipping Point”

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Investing, Education, Business

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 9 June 2025

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Redfin's latest forecast suggests home prices will see a 1% decline by year-end, a significant shift after years of growth. On The Market host Dave Meyer is joined by Chen Zhao, Redfin's Head of Economics Research, to discuss the key factors behind this projection, including a changing ratio of buyers to sellers in the market. Later in the show, Dave and Chen break down regional trends across the Sunbelt, Midwest and Northeast, talk about rent forecasts heading into 2026 and touch on the impact of current mortgage rates and trade policies on the real estate market. Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-328 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	For the first time in years, Redfin is forecasting a decline in U.S. home prices.
0:05.7	But a 1% dip, does that mean we're finally heading into a buyer's market?
0:10.6	Or is this just a temporary blip?
0:13.4	I'm Dave Meyer, and today I'm joined by Chen Zau, head of economic research at Redfin,
0:18.0	to break down their just released May 2025 housing market forecast.
0:23.7	We'll cover what's driving the shift in home prices, where inventory is rising,
0:28.1	why demand is lagging, and what investors and homebuyers should expect as we head into
0:33.3	the second half of the year.
0:34.8	This is on the market.
0:36.3	Let's get into it.
0:42.2	Music the second half of the year. This is on the market. Let's get into it. Chen, welcome back to On the Market. Thanks for being here. Great. Thanks for having me, Dave.
0:46.8	Let's start today with what I assume is the biggest headline is that Redfin has adjusted its
0:54.0	forecast for the year and is now projecting that
0:56.5	home prices will dip modestly by 1% by the end of the year. Can you tell us a little bit about
1:03.8	what data and information went into that decision? So our forecast for the year has changed.
1:09.6	You know, we still expect that mortgage rates are going to stay pretty high,
1:12.8	but the change is really that we are expecting demand to be softer for the rest of the year
1:18.2	and that prices will be falling by 1% by the end of the year, like you said.
1:22.6	The reason why we're making this call is because what we have observed is that the ratio of buyers to
1:29.8	sellers in the market has changed slowly over time, but now has really reached this tipping
1:35.8	point where nationally, we think most of the country is definitely in a buyer's market.
1:41.7	There are still some pockets of sellers markets in the northeast and in the
	...

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