I'm Audie Ignatius.

I'm Alison Beard, and this is the HBR Ideacast.

So, Alison, there seems to be a consensus that it has never been harder to be an executive.

Some of it is internal.

We have technology requirements.

We have talent challenges.

And we've created ever more complex organizations that test our ability to manage them.

But a lot of it is external. There's an unstable global environment that we have to understand and manage to lead effectively. Yeah, of course,

economic trends, geopolitics, technological disruption. We've said it once, we'll say it again.

These are all things that leaders in every industry and most

levels have to stay on top of and have a view on. So I'm hoping today's guest offers some

interesting insights on how to think about this big macro environment. He has a long history of

successful investing and he spends a lot of time thinking about how global forces are remaking

the business and investment climate.

He's Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, which by most accounts is the world's largest hedge fund,

and is the author of several books, including most recently How Countries Go Broke, The Big Cycle.

I sat down with Ray to speak about what he's learned from a career in investing

and what he thinks leaders need to focus on most in today's world.

If I could start with the economy, I feel like everyone I talk to is in lockstep, sort of bullish mode about the stock market. Consensus always scares me.

Give me a sense of where you think we are in terms of the market.

I hate to start with conclusions rather than how the machine works. I'd like to start by stepping

back. I learned from the study of history.

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