Hey everybody Rob Maower here and today we are going to go through a detailed forecast for Q4 delivery and production numbers for Tesla.

The reason we're doing this today is because we finally have a critical piece of information

that can help inform this forecast and that is Gigafactory Shanghai production numbers from the China Passenger

Car Association.

So earlier this week we had talked about the Model 3 sales numbers in China for October,

but we didn't yet have the production numbers.

Those have now been released by the CPCA and they are very strong, I think even better than

the most bullish of forecasts that I have seen.

So October production out of Gigafactory Shanghai was reported to be 22,929 model 3s.

So to put the context around just how strong that number is, let's hop into my forecasting

spreadsheet.

If you haven't seen this yet just to orientate you, each

row is a different period of time, and then in each grouping of columns here I have production numbers,

so I have total production, Fremont production, Shanghai production, and then I break that down to a weekly level and a daily level.

Those production rates on a weekly and daily level are incredibly important because

sometimes Tesla has known downtime.

So looking at monthly or quarterly production doesn't because sometimes Tesla has known downtime.

So looking at monthly or quarterly production

doesn't really give us the full picture

that weekly or daily does.

And then on the color scheme here, gray numbers are known.

Those have been reported by Tesla or figured out by us with high, high confidence.

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