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On the Media

Predictile Dysfunction

On the Media

WNYC Studios

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4.68.7K Ratings

🗓️ 4 March 2016

⏱️ 50 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Political commentators have reliably been wrong this election season. We take a look at why pundits make bad predictions, and why they probably won't stop.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

From WNYC in New York, this is on the media.

0:07.8

I'm Bob Garfield.

0:08.9

And I'm Brooke Gladstone.

0:10.3

Last Tuesday was no ordinary Tuesday.

0:12.9

It was Titanic, Cyclopean.

0:15.8

Super Tuesday, the make-or-break day for presidential candidates.

0:19.3

The high-stakes battle across a dozen states.

0:22.2

Drenched, as always, in a tidal wave of prognostication, which, you may have noticed, has consistently

0:28.4

rolled in the wrong direction. Where to start? Jeff Bush is the strongest general election

0:33.9

nominee by far. He's got the best message for a general. He's going to raise the most money. The establishment likes him the best.

0:39.5

A lot of members of Congress would like to see him be the nominee. And obviously to some extent,

0:43.4

it's his turn in the primogenitor of the party. Oopsie.

0:47.1

Well, it is game over for Jeb Bush after disappointing results in South Carolina.

0:51.7

There's Bernie Sanders, who's an adorable socialist, but probably

0:54.7

not a serious candidate. But, um... Now, Senator Bernie Sanders has proven he's a serious threat

1:00.2

to Clinton's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Trump is America's summer

1:04.4

flame. This is a phenomenon that is going to fade sooner rather than later. I think last night

1:10.6

is the beginning of the end for Trump.

1:12.7

That is my prediction.

1:14.4

Ah, Halcyon days.

1:16.3

Donald Trump dominates its Super Tuesday rivals.

1:20.3

The GOP establishment reaches for the panic button.

...

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