This is the Friends of History Debating Society. I'm John Batchel. The recovering politician,

my good friend Thaddeus MacArthur of Michigan is here with recommendations about how to watch a campaign,

how to watch these last hours to the campaign of 2024 closes, what to listen for. That is a very good

evening to you. Your recommendation is that of a veteran

politician, which you are, recovering enough to give us all the idea that we too could be a

politician if we only knew. What about the polls? What about the campaigns? What are we watching

for? Good evening to you. Good evening to you, John. What you don't want to do is watch the campaigns. What are we watching for? Good evening to you. Good evening to you, John.

What you don't want to do is watch the polls because for various reasons, the polls have proven

to be relatively inaccurate over the course of, say, the last two cycles, presidential cycles.

People are increasingly not willing to divulge political opinions over the phone

to strangers. They're running into instances of how people receive their communications

as well. So it's becoming very difficult for pollsters, not only to reach and get people

to respond, but also to understand how to weigh

the respective parties, because the parties are in a state of flux right now.

And so what you're seeing is people put out polls, some of them wildly different than others.

So I would say ignore them, but instead, watch what your opponent is

doing. If your opponent is running ads, targeting their base voters, and driving a message of

anger and fear, generally they're probably behind. If they're running ads that are in a

unifying way with more of an independent appeal,

they're probably doing okay with their base,

but they're trying to get to the sweet spot in the center to get over 50%.

These are the types of things to watch for watch for where the candidates are campaigning.

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