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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.620.6K Ratings

🗓️ 13 March 2023

⏱️ 60 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Did everybody watch the Oscars last night?

0:02.2

Of course.

0:03.6

I'm a good ABC company employee.

0:07.6

I went home early, but what was the joke involving Malala and the cocaine bear?

0:12.8

It was, it was, they were adjacent jokes.

0:16.0

So he was interviewing people in the audience, including Malala, and then for some reason,

0:19.8

the cocaine bear was calling behind him and like got up and tried to talk to Malala or something.

0:25.4

Did Malala get to interact with cocaine bear?

0:28.8

We couldn't see because the bear was obstructing her.

0:32.2

But she did, she did very diplomatically answer a question about whether Harry Styles bat on Chris Pine.

0:38.4

And what did she say?

0:40.2

She said she's only interested in peace.

0:44.4

Which is like a very politician answer.

0:48.2

Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics Podcast.

0:59.0

I'm Gaelin Drook.

1:00.0

What if I told you that 2022 was Poland's most accurate election cycle since at least 1998?

1:08.2

Then after all the hand-ranging about polling generally and the sniping about a Republican

1:13.6

or Democratic bias specifically, if you actually crunch the numbers,

1:18.2

polling had its smallest average error of the past 25 years in 2022 tied with the 2004 cycle.

1:26.2

Well, that's what 538's updated pollster rankings bear out.

1:30.4

So today we're going to talk about how we came to that conclusion and what it says about the polling industry.

1:35.6

There are certainly still meaningful questions to ask about the state of polling and we'll ask some of those as well.

...

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