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Red Lines

Poll Position

Red Lines

BBC

Government

4.478 Ratings

🗓️ 26 May 2021

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Mark Carruthers is joined by the Belfast Telegraph's Suzanne Breen, data analyst Peter Donaghy and Slugger O'Toole's David McCann to crunch the numbers on the latest poll.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

If the most recent lucid talk poll for the Belfast Telegraph turns out to be an accurate reflection of how things look for the Stormont parties after the next Assembly election, the political landscape is in for quite a shake-up.

0:12.6

So on this week's red lines, we're looking at how things might stack up in a year's time with three expert number crunchers.

0:19.4

And of course, we know this poll is a snapshot in time

0:22.5

and it comes with all the usual caveats. We accept that, but it still makes for a fascinating

0:27.8

conversation. Suzanne, what are the big headlines for you? The big headline news in this poll

0:33.3

is that the DUP is on just 16%. That's half the vote it got in the Westminster election

0:40.8

18 months ago.

0:42.6

I mean, I've been covering the DUP for around a quarter of a century

0:46.3

for my sins, and I don't recall the party getting a vote

0:50.8

of anything as low as that or being so low in the polls.

0:55.8

I think we have to go back to the last century, to a 1997 election result

1:02.1

when the DUP was on anything this low.

1:05.3

And the problem for Edwin puts is that there's a big question mark

1:08.8

over whether he's the man to turn it around because

1:11.8

his poll ratings themselves are so poor. The other story is the Beatty bounce. Doug Beatty

1:19.1

wasn't even the official leader of the party when this poll was conducted, but people knew

1:24.6

that he would be and they obviously like him. There mightn't

1:28.0

be a cigarette paper of a difference between himself and Steve Aiken on policy, but when

1:33.7

it comes to personality, I think the voters in Northern Ireland are warming to the new

1:38.6

EUP leader. Okay. Peter, what stands out for you? Yeah, well, I mean, obviously the DEP being in free fall is the big story here, but I think within unionism,

1:49.0

the kind of the strength, continuing strength of the TV, who have, you know,

1:54.0

continued to increase their support over the last few polls and are now sort of polling around about the level that they were

...

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