Peter Boockvar: The AI Semi Trade is Nearing an Absolute Exhaustion Point

RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Media

Investing, Business, News, Business News

4.7 • 836 Ratings

🗓️ 24 April 2026

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss a narrow, under-the-hood stock market rally driven largely by AI beneficiaries—especially semiconductors and data-center hardware—while hyperscalers lag as they turn asset-heavy and free cash flow falls. They note extreme momentum in semis (record RSI/long winning streak) and debate catalysts for a reversal, including hyperscaler CapEx guidance, potential demand destruction from higher component costs, and front-loaded ordering tied to war-driven supply fears. The conversation broadens to geopolitics: war-related commodity impacts, Strait of Hormuz risks, and U.S.-China leverage via rare-earth magnets critical to defense production, with expectations Trump’s China trip may be pragmatic. They touch on defense stocks’ vulnerability to drones, Fed-chair transition expectations toward Warsh, early earnings takeaways (banks steady, homebuilders fragile), and focus on upcoming hyperscaler results for ads and CapEx. Show Notes Checkout The Boock Report: peterboockvar.substack.com/ FactSet's Earnings Insight: factset.com/insight/subscribe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Transcript

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1:01.3	Welcome to the Risk Reversal podcast. I am Dan Neath, and that is Peter Bookbar. He is the CIO of 1.BFG wealth partners. Peter, welcome back to the podcast. Thanks, Dan. Great to be here.
1:08.7	All right. This is a really interesting day in the stock market.
1:12.2	You and I are recording this midday on Thursday.
1:15.8	You were listening to this Friday morning or some time over the weekend.
1:20.4	I can't dictate when you listen to the podcast.
1:23.0	But this is a good one.
1:23.8	Peter is one of my fave, fave guests.
1:26.0	You've been on the podcast over five and a half
1:27.8	years. I've got to say at least a dozen times, and we appreciate your time and insights. We're going to talk about the macro. We're going to talk about the implications of the war and what that means on commodity prices. Obviously, it's oil, it's natural gas, it's all the buy products, it's diesel, it's jet fuel. And we're starting
1:45.4	to hear a bit of that from some of the companies that are reporting. And I know you do great work
1:49.8	on the single stock basis and take out a lot of great data points. And you can read about that
1:55.2	on the book report. Peter writes probably a few times a day. So to me, it's one of my first
2:00.6	reads and you keep us up throughout the day. So to me, it's one of my first reads
	...

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