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Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson work for Ritholt's wealth management.

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discussed in this podcast. So why charts such us over a table showing S&P 500

performance with the day of the yield curve inversion.

One month, three month, six month, etc. afterwards.

And some red, but there's a lot of green.

So they show the average of the past four times that has happened going back to 1978.

On average two years later, stocks are up 7%, 18 months later they're up 12%, one year later

that are up 10%. It looks like the only really bad one was the

extended bear market in the early 2000s. So two years after it inverted in the

February of 2000 stocks are down 20%. That's probably because that bear market lasted almost three years.

But wait a minute, one thought. What they don't show here is max drawdown. So we know that stocks tend to go up. So you could see 18 months after a 32% return but they could have fallen 30% before that you know what I mean?

Yes, and so how badly are you freaking out about the anniversary because you're Mr headline Headline Risk Guy lately and the yield curves have been in the

headline so tell me what your level of anxiety is about the yield curve.

...