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This is the Friends Vista Debating Society. I'm John Batcher, the Bureau of Meteorology

in New South Wales in Australia, called affectionately the bomb. The bomb is hedging. It's been hedging

for months about El Nino. El Nino is possible. El Nino is indicated, but not yet confirmed. Jeremy

Sackis in New South Wales, not yet confirmed. Do we know why they're holding back Jeremy?

Honestly, John, I think we do know why. I suspect it strongly because when El Nino is declared,

there's a lot of government actions that then take place about disaster preparation that

has a lot of funding tied to it. It also is assigned to for the insurance companies to

take certain actions as well, which includes increasing premiums and taking some financial

steps to protect themselves. I think in some ways the bomb, as we love the caller, is

being very, very cautious and conservative for the right reasons because as soon as El Nino

is declared, there's all these other actions. But the reality, John, is that if it looks

like a duck, if it walks like a duck, then you know what? It probably is, El Nino, because

we are heading into a very, very dry period now. It's really splitting hairs about what

El Nino actually is once it gets to a point where you've had so much dry winter and they're

going into a dry summer, that's basically exactly what El Nino is. And we are heading towards

a catastrophic crisis in which the view of meteorology does agree is coming up. So the reality

is I think, you know, El Nino will probably be declared at the beginning of summer. That's

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