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The a16z Show

Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs

The a16z Show

a16z

Science, Innovation, Business, Entrepreneurship, Culture, Disruption, Software Eating The World, Technology

4.41.1K Ratings

🗓️ 20 August 2025

⏱️ 73 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back? In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry. They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other’s assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil.

Transcript

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0:00.0

The question is, does free trade with China advance free markets or does it distort and

0:06.6

wreck our free market?

0:08.5

We have treated free trade as the natural extension of free markets.

0:13.4

If you attempt to be for free trade with a non-market economy, you are not actually advancing

0:19.2

free markets in any significant way at all.

0:21.7

You're actually dramatically hindering them.

0:24.8

China is pretty much the only competitive threat we face, which all our allies are facing at the same time,

0:29.5

and we're fighting with our allies instead of pooling our resources to stand up to China.

0:34.5

At the end of the day, if the goal is not to make America the assembly hub of the

0:39.0

world, but to actually re-industrialize, you have to actually create incentives to bring back

0:44.2

those intermediate supplies. The U.S. is rethinking its economic playbook on tariffs, trade,

0:51.1

manufacturing, and what it really means to support family, community, and industry.

0:55.6

In this episode, I'm joined by Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, and Noah Smith, author of

1:00.7

no opinion, for a debate on industrial policy, reshoring, and whether tariffs help or hurt

1:06.0

American manufacturing. We get into the data behind recent trade policy, the short versus long-term effects on domestic industry, and whether the U.S. should double down on protectionism or scale up with its allies to compete globally.

1:17.6

Along the way, we talk about factory construction, global supply chains, economic modeling, and what both sides we need to see to actually change their minds. Let's get into it. We're really excited

1:31.6

to have you on because we've been talking about some topics over the past few months that you've

1:36.2

been thinking a lot about, that you've been writing a lot about, that your thinking is in fact

1:40.1

informed and inspired and encourage some of what's actually happened. And so before we get into

1:46.0

some of the specifics, I wanted for some of our audience who may not be familiar, especially on the

1:50.3

A-Sign Z side, I wanted to just give you an opportunity to kind of introduce your platform, so to speak,

1:55.9

or introduce kind of the main topics and ideas that you're affiliated with. We'll link to the book and some of the

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