Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Bell again. So today, we're going to talk about

Arizona, Lake, Gallego, and Trump in heels. Republican Senate hopeful Carrie Lake had an interview

on CNN, where she was asked more than once about accepting the results of previous elections.

She dodged.

Lake has often been referred to as Trump in Heels and has backed numerous dubious claims

about elections in Arizona. Lake lost the 2022 governor's race in the state, and then, despite many in the GOP expressing doubt about her

electability, decided to run for Senate and won the primary. The Arizona GOP has kind of been

overrun with election deniers. So her primary win was not really surprising. She's a faithful Trump follower and leaned into that

heavily. However, it looks like those in the GOP who were concerned about her electability might have been

right. Scrolling through the polls on 538 that feed into their polling average, I couldn't find a

single poll that showed her in the lead going back to the beginning of August. Her opponent,

Marine Corvette Ruben Gallego, is always in the lead, often by double digits. So, why does

this matter? Because of the discrepancy between Trump's

numbers in Arizona and Lake's numbers. Trump is leading in the state. The amount of split-ticket

voting that would have to occur to make the polling numbers add up is immense. Unheard of, really.

For the polling to line up, there would have to be a whole lot of people who are voting for Trump, who are refusing to vote for Trump in heels.

What does that leave us with? Either Lake is going to do better than polling indicates or Trump is going to do worse.

That seems like the most likely option.

Lake could do much better than her numbers indicate and still lose.

But Trump has a razor-thin lead.

It's possible that Gallego's apparent popularity brings out unlikely voters to vote for him,

or maybe they're voting against Blake.

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