Presented by BP.

Good morning, everyone. I'm Playbook co-author Eugene Daniels. It is Friday, November 1st,

which means there are just four days left in the election. We've almost made it. We're almost

there, crawling, crawling to Tuesday. Here is what's driving the day.

Predictions.

Everyone is trying to predict how this election is going to turn out.

And they're turning to any number of things to gauge who stands where, how things will turn out on Tuesday night.

This morning, we're going to check on three different metrics.

Some folks are using to get a sense of whether Trump or Harris is ahead. First, the stock

market. While political gamblers and crypto traders are betting on a Trump return to the White

House, the stock market might be telling a somewhat different story. The S&P 500 index has climbed more than 10%

since August. And as our Declan Hardy reports, its, quote, performance in the run-up to election

day has historically been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party's candidate will

retain control of the White House, correctly forecasting all but

four presidential races over the last 96 years, which could be a good sign for Harris, though,

as Declan writes, there are plenty of doubters on Wall Street about the S&P 500's predictive

power.

Second, we have the early votes.

With everyone trying to parse what to make of them,

I asked two different leading predictors about that on today's episode of Playbook Deep Dive,

Luxia Jane of a split ticket and Logan Phillips of Race to the White House.

Their advice, hold your damn horses,

...