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At a White House summit last week, President Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Unichiro Koysumi to discuss the mutual security threat posed by North Korea.

Despite the general media panic, Cato Vice President for Foreign Policy and Defense Studies, Ted Carpenter,

cautions against hasty action.

Ted, in your article for the New York Daily News, you expressed doubt that a North Korean test missile launch is a real crisis.

Well, for one thing, the tests may not come off.

We've had two instances over the past several years in which there were apparently reliable reports that a missile test was imminent.

In neither case did the test actually occur.

This may be another incident like that. In either case, did the test actually occur?

This may be another incident like that where the North Koreans are just trying to get attention

from the United States and the other countries in the region.

What would be the geopolitical impact of a test missile launch?

A test would certainly ratchet up tensions in the region.

South Korea has already told the North that if the missile test is conducted, South Korea is going to

scale back its economic cooperation with the North.

Certainly the kind of engagement strategy that South Korea has pursued will be slowed at the very least.

Japan is likely to react in an even more harsh manner.

The Japanese were very upset in 1998 when the North Koreans conducted their last

missile test. And Japan has indicated that this will have a grave effect on relations with North Korea.

Japan and South Korea both see a test launch as a threat to regional stability.

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