No One Is Crazy
The Morgan Housel Podcast
Morgan Housel
4.9 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 5 April 2024
⏱️ 14 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The fun part of behavioral finance is learning about how flawed other people can be. The hard part is trying to figure out how flawed you are, and what stories make sense to you but would seem crazy to others.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome back. |
| 0:07.0 | If you haven't seen, there is a billion dollar lottery jackpot and I just checked this morning |
| 0:18.4 | apparently somebody has won it so congratulations to the newest billionaire it's one of the largest lottery |
| 0:26.4 | jackpots in history and of course the odds of winning a jackpot are ridiculously low. |
| 0:34.8 | The math nerds apparently put the odds that you will win that billion dollar jackpot at |
| 0:39.7 | one in 292 million, which I checked is roughly 19,000 times less likely than being struck by |
| 0:49.8 | lightning in your lifetime. |
| 0:51.8 | You're 19,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning than |
| 0:54.5 | win this jackpot. But what's astounding about lotteries when you dig into them that I imagine will shock a lot of people listening to this, |
| 1:05.3 | for a reason I'll explain in a second, is how much money Americans spend on the lottery. |
| 1:12.1 | It is wild. In 2023 Americans spent more than a hundred |
| 1:18.4 | billion dollars on state-run lotteries. The economists recently pointed out that if that were a company |
| 1:27.0 | making a hundred billion dollars in revenue it would be the ninth largest company in the |
| 1:31.8 | world. Some other ways to contextualize this that I |
| 1:36.0 | thought about. The iPhone, the most successful consumer product in history |
| 1:41.7 | effectively, is a $200 billion per year business |
| 1:45.3 | worldwide. |
| 1:47.5 | While Americans spend $100 billion a year on Scratcher tickets on the lottery, One other way to think about this is that this billion dollar |
| 1:57.8 | lottery ticket, just this one prize that was recently won, is more than nine states spend on their K-12 |
| 2:05.8 | education per year. It's just an insane amount of money that Americans spend on |
| 2:11.0 | lotteries. |
| 2:13.3 | And I've pointed us out before. |
... |
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