Hello fellow rebel capitalists hope you're well. I know there's a lot of debate right now as to whether we have a hard landing

an economic crash or financial crisis something like that or we have this kind of

Goldilocks type of soft landing where the Fed just gradually increases interest rates and inflation just magically comes back down, but the

unemployment rate stays below 4% and we just kind of look back on this period five years from now and say boy what on earth were we worried about what was was that yield curve predicting? The yield curve is dead. We

should no longer pay any attention to it. We didn't go into a hard landing, let alone a recession there was nothing to worry about.

What I want to do is go to the New York Times to give us some historical context to see if the probability is higher that we have a

hard landing or a soft landing.

Because one thing we know is that the central planners and the authoritarians are always correct, right? Right?

Let's go out to the New York Times.

Title of this article,

Fed Chairman projects soft landing for the U.S. economy. But I'd like you to note the fine print the date is

this from 2023 no this is from February 15th, 2007. I want to read to you some of the things that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke was saying at the time.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,

Ben Bernanke, has given Congress an upbeat view

of the US economy, predicting that unemployment was likely to remain low over the next two years

as inflation declined slightly.

Does that sound familiar? Have you heard, I don't know, maybe another Fed

chair saying something similar or identical right now in 2023 and I'd like to remind you that I don't have the

chart right in front of me but I'm 99 in fact Josh why don't you pull it up

let's look at a chart of the three month and 10 year,

although I might have that right.

Aha, I do.

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