Elliott Holland is back with us to help us explore today's investing landscape. We discuss concerns about illiquidity, continuation funds, and efforts to expand private equity access into retirement accounts such as 401(k)s, as those moves may be driven by a need for liquidity rather than investor benefit. We also talk how investor psychology, ego, and exclusivity often influence capital allocation, while experienced investors should focus instead on fundamentals like who has better information in a transaction and whether there are multiple ways to win in an investment. We dive into emerging areas like search funds, small business acquisitions, and roll-up strategies, highlighting both their potential and risks. There is importance to patience in investing, as technologies like AI may reshape research, decision-making, and competitive advantages for investors and business owners.

We discuss...

• Whether private equity still deserves its reputation as producing the smartest investors and best returns in finance.
• Private equity returns have declined over the past decade and in many cases barely outperform the S&P 500.
• Mezzanine debt is highlighted as an alternative that has historically produced better returns with less risk and shorter lockups than private equity.
• Continuation funds and other mechanisms allow private equity firms to extend holding periods when they cannot find buyers.
• Some private equity firms are struggling with liquidity because they cannot exit deals at the valuations they promised investors.
• Illiquid investments with mediocre returns may not be worth the long lockup periods required.
• How exclusivity and the desire to invest alongside prestigious managers can lead investors to overlook fundamentals.
• How Wall Street often profits regardless of whether the underlying investments succeed.
• The Stanford model of funded search funds is historically producing strong reported returns.
• Increased competition for small business deals may be inflating prices and reducing returns.
• In some cases sellers may misrepresent financial performance to attract inexperienced buyers.
• Roll-ups can work when a larger buyer eventually acquires the combined platform at a premium valuation.
• Real estate is an example where multiple exit paths can justify accepting illiquidity.
• Periods of market stress often create the best opportunities for patient investors.
• Investors often regret not having enough capital ready during market downturns.
• The conversation also examines how smaller investors may have advantages over large institutions in finding niche deals.
• How new technologies and economic changes may create opportunities for the next generation of investors.
• AI is described as a productivity tool that can accelerate research and idea development, though AI outputs are not always reliable and require human judgment.
• Experienced professionals who combine domain knowledge with AI tools may gain a major advantage.
• Leaders should ensure someone within their organization is actively monitoring AI developments.
• Investors and entrepreneurs should stay curious, patient, and disciplined while adapting to changing markets and technologies.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

 

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/todays-investing-landscape-elliott-holland-800