Navigating the Twin Crises of the 2020s | George Friedman

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 24 March 2025

⏱️ 53 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 406 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with renowned geopolitical analyst and forecaster George Friedman about the pivotal institutional and socioeconomic cycles that shape historical events—and how their convergence is driving the economic and political crises of the 2020s.

George and Demetri examine critical turning points in American history, including Andrew Jackson’s abolition of the Second Bank of the United States (which financed westward expansion), the presidency of Rutherford B. Hayes (and the Long Depression), the consumer-driven growth wave following FDR’s 1930s reforms, and the neoliberal era sparked by the Reagan Revolution.

In the second hour, Friedman and Kofinas apply this framework to the era we are living in today, which according to George, is the first time in American history that both the 80-year institutional cycle and 50-year socioeconomic cycle are occurring concurrently. They discuss how (and why) so-called “woke ideology” and a sclerotic and ineffective bureaucracy are symptoms of the end of the institutional cycle and why the economic policies of this new era will lead to more capital investment and a revitalization of the American economy.

Lastly, George provides listeners with a roadmap for geopolitical events in the 21st century that includes reconciliation with Putin’s Russia, a new paradigm of peace in the middle east, and a long and challenging period of economic weakness in China that will consume the energies of the Chinese communist party and challenge the PRC’s ability to assert itself on the global stage for at least the next several decades.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 03/17/2025

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up, everybody?
0:02.0	My name is Demetri Gaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a podcast that inspires investors,
0:08.0	entrepreneurs and everyday citizens, the challenge consensus narratives, and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.0	My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is George Friedman, the founder and chairman
0:24.0	of forecasting firm Geopolitical Futures, the founder of Stratford, a geopolitical intelligence
0:29.4	and consulting firm, and the best-selling author of books such as the next 100 years,
0:34.6	and the storm before the calm, America's discord, the coming crisis of the 2020s,
0:40.1	and the triumph beyond.
0:42.2	In the first hour, George and I discuss what he describes as the institutional and socioeconomic
0:47.7	cycles that drive historical events.
0:50.6	We explore several notable examples of such cycle turnings in history, including Andrew Jackson's abolishment of the Second Bank of the United States, which facilitated the financing of Westward expansion, the presidency of Rutherford B. Hayes and the Long Depression, the growth in American consumption that arrived on the back of FDR's reforms in the 1930s, and the neoliberal
1:12.3	era sparked by the Reagan Revolution. In the second hour, George and I apply this framework to the
1:18.4	era we are living in today, which, according to George, is the first time in American history
1:22.9	that both the 80-year institutional cycle and the 50-year socio-economic cycle are occurring concurrently.
1:29.6	We discuss how and why so-called woke ideology and a sclerotic and ineffective bureaucracy
1:35.4	are symptoms of the end of the institutional cycle, and why the economic policies of this new era
1:41.2	will lead to more capital investment and a revitalization of the American economy.
1:46.0	Lastly, George provides us with a roadmap for geopolitical events in the 21st century that includes reconciliation with Putin's Russia,
1:54.0	a new paradigm of peace in the Middle East, and a long and challenging period of economic weakness in China that will consume the
2:02.5	energies of the Chinese Communist Party and challenge the PRC's ability to assert itself on the global
2:07.8	stage for at least the next several decades. If you want access to both parts of today's
2:13.0	conversation, and you're not already subscribed to Hidden Forces, you can join our premium feed and listen
	...

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