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Hidden Forces

Why Fiscal Policy Is What Really Matters For Investors | Kevin Muir

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 31 March 2025

⏱️ 58 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 407 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Macro Tourist’s Kevin Muir about the power of fiscal spending and why fiscal austerity and trade tariffs will lead to lower asset prices, U.S. equity market underperformance, and a falling U.S. dollar.

Kevin and Demetri spend the first hour of this podcast discussing the importance of fiscal policy and why government spending has been one of the biggest sources of outperformance for investors in the last five years. They discuss why that’s the case, why the effects of fiscal policy continue to be overlooked and discounted relative to monetary policy, and what this means going forward if we take the Trump team at his word about wanting to reduce the deficit and scale back on fiscal spending.

In the second hour, Muir and Kofinas dig even deeper into the fiscal spending implications for U.S. equity and bond markets, concerns about rotation risk into global equities, the investment opportunities in Europe and Asia, downside risks to the US dollar, the China gold put, and much more.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 03/24/2025

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

What's up, everybody? My name is Dmitra Gaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces,

0:05.9

a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs, and everyday citizens to challenge consensus

0:12.3

narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

0:18.0

My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Kevin Muir, an independent trader who is best known

0:23.6

for his public writings of the macro tourist and from his podcast, The Market Huddle.

0:28.6

Kevin and I spend the first hour of this conversation discussing the importance of fiscal policy

0:33.6

and why government spending has been one of the biggest sources of our performance for investors in the last five years.

0:39.3

We discuss why this has been the case, why the effects of fiscal policy continue to be overlooked and discounted relative to monetary policy,

0:47.3

and what this means going forward if we take the Trump administration at its word about wanting to reduce the deficit and scale back on fiscal

0:55.1

spending. In the second hour, Kevin and I dig even deeper into the fiscal spending implications

1:01.0

for U.S. equity and bond markets, concerns about rotation risk into global equities, the investment

1:07.2

opportunities in Europe and Asia, downside risks to the US dollar, the China gold

1:12.1

put, and much more. If you want access to that part of the conversation and you're not already

1:17.4

subscribed to Hidden Forces, you can join our premium feed and listen to the second hour of today's

1:22.3

episode by going to hiddenforces.io slash subscribe. All of our content tiers give you access to our premium

1:30.0

feed, which you can listen to on your mobile device using your favorite podcast app just like

1:35.3

you're listening to this episode right now. If you want to join in on the conversation and become

1:41.1

a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events,

1:49.7

and dinners. You can also do that on our subscriber page. And if you still have questions,

1:54.8

feel free to send an email to info at hiddenforces.io. And I or someone from our team will get right back to you. Lastly,

2:04.2

because this conversation deals with investing, nothing we say on this podcast can or should be viewed

2:09.9

as financial advice. All opinions expressed by me and my guests are solely our own opinions

...

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