Nate Silver's Bad Prediction

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Slate Podcasts

News Commentary, Politics, News

4.5 • 6K Ratings

🗓️ 13 May 2016

⏱️ 22 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Leon Neyfakh talks to Jordan Ellenberg and Dave Weigel about whether it’s fair or not to criticize Nate Silver for missing Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	The following podcast contains explicit language.
0:30.0	Welcome to Trumpcast, the show about Paul Ryan's new best friend, Donald Trump.
0:37.2	My name is Leon Nefak and I am still in the show today from my boss Jacob Weisberg
0:40.7	in order to talk about Nate Silver, who spent much of the past year writing on his website
0:44.4	538.com that Donald Trump was not a serious candidate for the public nomination.
0:49.7	At one point he put Trump's odds at just 2%.
0:52.7	The fact that Silver got Trump so wrong was notable because he has a track record of getting
0:55.8	so many things right.
0:57.6	In the past few weeks he has been criticized and even mocked for the confidence of which
1:00.8	he counted Trump out.
1:02.7	Joining me today to talk about whether that criticism in mockery is deserved or not are
1:06.1	friends of Slate Jordan Ellenberg and Dave Weigel.
1:08.4	They'll be here in a minute, but first let's check it on Trump's tweets.
1:15.7	Crooked Hillary just can't close the deal with Bernie.
1:20.6	It would be the same way with ISIS and China on trade and Mexico at the border.
1:27.6	Bad.
1:30.1	Crooked Hillary Clinton say she got more primary votes than Donald Trump, but I had 17
1:37.5	people to beat.
1:38.8	She had one.
1:41.8	Joe Scarborough initially endorsed Jeb Bush and Jeb crashed then John Kasich and that
1:48.8	didn't work.
1:50.3	Not much power or insight.
	...

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