Monday - March 9, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 9 March 2026
⏱️ 16 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s
The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday.
00:00 Volatility Backdrop
00:54 Wild Market Reversal
01:47 Oil Spike Explained
04:10 Ignore The Noise
04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth
06:18 Backwardation Signals
07:42 War Timeline Shipping
09:57 Policy Risks Oil
10:42 Jobs Report Shock
12:33 Energy CPI Outlook
13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Well, hello and welcome to the Monday Dividend Cafe where we are continuing to live in the exact same environment that we found ourselves last week that I talked |
| 0:24.5 | about in the Friday Dividend Cafe. Let me start with that. The Friday Dividendon Cafe did a deeper |
| 0:31.2 | dive into other investment considerations of this current military operation in Iran. The major takeaway, I really would |
| 0:39.5 | prefer you go to the Friday Dividing Cafe to get more meat on the bone, but essentially suggesting |
| 0:45.1 | that this idea of high, elevated, exacerbated, intraday volatility is the most likely |
| 0:53.2 | scenario for the time being. I don't see it going away |
| 0:55.6 | anytime soon, and I don't care about it at all. And it cuts both ways. And it's going on every day. |
| 1:03.1 | And it reflects all kinds of horrifically bad trading habits. So what happened is the futures |
| 1:09.3 | last night were down about 1,000 points. |
| 1:11.6 | At around 4 a.m. this morning, Eastern, they were down 700. |
| 1:15.6 | They got as low as only down 400. |
| 1:19.6 | The market opened down 500. |
| 1:21.6 | We went down nearly a thousand points, and then we closed up over 200 points. You had this 1,200 point |
| 1:32.0 | intraday gap between the bottom and the top, and the top being very near the closing price |
| 1:40.0 | of the day. So that same trend played out, although it could have been in the opposite direction |
| 1:45.9 | with the peak coming earlier in the day and the trough coming later in the day, but most often |
| 1:51.1 | it was this back and forth teeter-totter. And it really more or less happened every day last |
| 1:57.0 | week. There was one day that was a little less volatile than others. The other piece to it today, |
| 2:01.9 | though, was in the oil prices itself, where, you know, I mentioned on Friday that WTI last week, |
| 2:09.4 | the day after the weekend's war activities on the Monday was only up five, five and a half percent, |
| 2:15.8 | which was child's play in the grand scheme of things. And then by Thursday night, when I was speaking to a dinner of clients in Nashville, |
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