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The Dividend Cafe

Iran, Oil, and Markets

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Monetary Policy, Investing, Macro Economics, Estate Planning, Retirement Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Wealth Management

4.9569 Ratings

🗓️ 6 March 2026

⏱️ 22 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46HCMXH

From Nashville, Dividend Cafe host David Bahnsen discusses investor implications of the U.S. military operation that began in Iran, emphasizing the discomfort of analyzing markets amid potential casualties. He notes the Dow is down about 3% on the week but highlights extreme intraday volatility as a sign of uncertainty rather than news-driven moves. Bahnsen argues the key market driver is oil: WTI has surged into the 90s, up over 32% in a week, while futures show backwardation implying a temporary shock. He cites knock-on effects including higher shipping costs, sidelined container ships in the Persian Gulf, and aluminum at four-year highs. Political ramifications could affect markets via midterm outcomes. He advises investors not to change asset allocation or trade the “fog of war,” expecting volatility to persist while focusing on long-term dividend compounding.

00:00 Welcome From Nashville

01:01 War And Investor Lens

02:54 Market Drop Versus Volatility

06:45 Fog Of War Uncertainty

09:24 Oil Shock And Backwardation

11:26 Shipping Metals And Gas

15:09 Political Ripple Effects

18:16 What Investors Should Do

20:04 Closing Thoughts And Prayer

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio

0:06.5

and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well, hello and welcome to the Dividend Cafe.

0:14.8

I'm your host, David Bonson. I'm recording from our beautiful office here in downtown Nashville, Tennessee, where I'll be leaving shortly.

0:24.4

I've got to spend the last couple of days here.

0:26.3

I had some wonderful times with clients here and now heading off to the next city on what is a little whirlwind of a week.

0:34.7

And we'll get back into New York on Tuesday night.

0:38.1

And there's a lot going on right now in markets. There's a lot going on in energy and a lot going on in the world.

0:43.9

And we're going to dedicate our time today to those things as it pertains to the military operation

0:49.6

that began in Iran last weekend. The kind of major takeaways for investors and how we're thinking

0:57.8

about what is going on and our expectations around all of this, the noise and the legitimate

1:05.6

news elements of where things stand as it particularly pertains to investors.

1:12.0

That's what I want to get into here in the Dividend Cafe.

1:14.1

It's a sobering discussion and, frankly, a little bit uncomfortable

1:17.4

because Dividend Cafe exists to talk to investors about financial ramifications,

1:23.8

about policy issues that matter to markets, to the economy, and war is fundamentally something

1:34.0

that is obviously life-threatening.

1:36.3

And so there's this human life element.

1:38.8

And when casualties are a reality or a possibility or both, and I'm sitting here talking about what it means to

1:48.0

investor or financial return expectations. It's uncomfortable. But I also know what the

1:56.0

objective of Diven Cafe is and I need to stay in that lane and at the same time do my very best to

2:03.7

provide a useful framework for how to think about these things. One of the elements I would say,

2:10.7

because I'm going to move on now, taking for granted that you understand where my priorities

...

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