Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity

Strategist for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial

marketplace.

Though I am typically coming to you from Morgan Stanley's U.S. headquarters, today, like many of our

listeners, I am working from my home. Hence the difference in recording quality. It's Monday, March 16th at noon, so let's get after.

First off, let me start by saying that my thoughts and prayers go out to those who've been directly affected by the ongoing health crisis

we're currently experiencing. I would also like to thank all the health care

professionals for their efforts in helping those in need and mitigating the

spread of the virus which we will ultimately defeat.

Now onto the markets and how to be thinking about one's financial health during these

volatile times.

While it may not be obvious to the casual observer, we believe the current correction is actually part of a cyclical bare market

that began two years ago.

The coronavirus and oil price declines are simply the final disruptions to an already

exhausted U.S. and global economic expansion.

For regular listeners, you will know that we believe the economy was destined for a recession

based on many time-tested variables like the yield curve

and the defensive equity market leadership for the past 20 months.

Therefore the important conclusion for investors is that this means a US recession should actually

...