Welcome to the thoughts on the market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief

U.S. Equity Strategies for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace.

It's Monday, August 26 at 9 a.m. Eastern, so let's get after it.

It's been almost 30 years since my first visit to Yosemite.

Since then, I've been fortunate to experience more than 20 of these

national park treasures. Last week my wife and I returned to Yosemite to share the thrill of climbing

half-dome with our sons, just like we had done together 28 years ago.

Although the legs are not as strong as they used to be, the draw-to-the-top was perhaps even greater,

knowing it may be my last opportunity.

Being on the north side of 50 changes one's perspective

about such adventures. A week in the mountains disconnected from the internet

can affect one's perspective about a lot of things, including the markets.

Without the daily noise and chatter, I was able to

reflect a bit on our thesis for this year and evaluate its accuracy in

whether it remains on track. The bottom line is that I have more conviction in my

view that financial markets remain held back by slowing growth and the limited ability of central banks to stop the deteriorating business cycle both abroad and in the U.S.

However, upon my return from the peace and quiet, it seems the popular narrative

remains to blame trade tensions or the Fed for all the negative price action we've been getting from

both stock and bond markets this past year.

But in my view, commentary like this is missing the real issue,

that the business cycle is coming to an end

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