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Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: Could Upbeat Jobs Data Actually Weigh on Stocks?

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 9 August 2021

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

July’s strong labor market report suggests the Fed may be behind the curve on monetary policy— and markets could soon start to notice.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

0:03.7

I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist from Oregon

0:07.3

Stanley.

0:08.3

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about

0:11.0

the latest trends in the financial marketplace.

0:13.2

It's Monday, August 9th at 1 p.m. in New York, so let's get after it.

0:18.2

During the dog digs of August, investors typically go on vacation and lose interest in the

0:22.5

day-to-day news flow and trading activity.

0:24.8

Ironically, this can lead to more volatility and therefore trading opportunities.

0:28.6

However, these opportunities are very difficult to capture with leadership changing frequently,

0:33.2

almost hourly.

0:34.6

Activity typically dries up too, making it even more difficult for larger players to execute,

0:39.0

hence the bigger swings in price.

0:41.1

Last week, financial market participants were highly focused on one particular event that

0:44.7

could impact financial markets for the next several months, the July Labor Report on Friday.

0:49.8

This report is an important input to the Fed's timing for the removal of monetary accommodation.

0:54.4

Meanwhile, it's getting difficult to argue we still need emergency monetary policy at

0:58.0

a time when the U.S. economy is growing close to 10% on a year-ever-year basis.

1:02.5

In its defense, the Fed has argued at once evidence of substantial further progress in

1:06.8

the recovery, and they've explicitly cited full employment before it begins the process

1:10.7

of tightening.

1:11.7

Well, Friday's Labor Report did not disappoint those looking for a substantial further progress.

...

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