Welcome to Thoughts in the Market, I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Stragist for

Morgan Stanley.

And I'm Jettinaya, Morgan's and his Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics.

And on this special mid-year outlook edition of Thoughts in the Market, we'll be talking

about the outlook for the global economy, business investment, and inflation.

It's Friday, May 21st at 3pm in London.

And then I'm in New York.

Jettinaya, it's great to talk to you.

Both of us have been spending a lot of the last week talking with investors about our

mid-year outlook, which is a big collaborative process across Morgan Stanley's global

economic and strategy teams where we all debate and forecast what we think the next 12 months

will look like.

And so I want to start with one of the key questions that at least I've been getting

around that outlook, which is that after the last recession, after the global financial

crisis, people were also optimistic the growth would come back.

They also felt like we returned to a more normal environment.

And yet as soon as 2010, and then again in 2011, you saw these really big disappointments

to growth.

So what's different this time?

Why do we think that this expansion is going to be stronger and more sustainable than

what we saw last time?

The biggest difference between this cycle and the previous cycle is in the way the policy

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