Welcome to Thoughts in the Market.

I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Stragist for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends

across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together.

It's Thursday, May 20th at 1pm in London.

Morgan Stanley's global economists and strategists have spent the last several weeks debating

and forecasting what the next 12 months will hold.

The conclusion?

We think growth will be good, but those strong economic wins are becoming more complicated

for markets.

Over the next 12 months, we see a strong global economy supported by the largest fiscal

stimulus, the largest monetary easing, and the highest consumer savings rates in history.

Low investment over the last decade is set the stage for a significant rebound in capital

spending, increasing rates of vaccination support of faster normalization relative to prior

recessions.

All of this differs from the last 11 years, which was frequently defined by fiscal austerity,

a lack of investment, and a weak consumer scarred by the global financial crisis.

This break from the prior regime is a central part of our story.

As is often the case after recessions, what follows is different from what came before.

Instead, investors face a different dilemma, a hotter, perhaps shorter cycle.

Hotter because the global economy enjoys these significant tailwinds.

Shorter because these tailwinds could bring unusually fast normalization.

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