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A warm welcome to the Risk Reversal podcast. I'm Guy Adami. You know Dan, Nathan. Hello, Dan. How are you?

Hi, Guy. I'm doing great here. Thank you. We have a lot to talk about. By the way, I hope everybody's enjoying this Memorial Day weekend. I had a great

conversation with Daryl Crate. He is the founder and managing principle of easterly asset management.

We talked about markets, AI, structural volatility, a little bit about the Fed, some of the things

that he's seeing in terms of small caps and some opportunities. So stick around for that. But before we get there, another week that was an S&P 500 that continues to push against all-time highs, a market, Dan, that seems impervious to any bit of bad news that comes out. Yeah. And I guess for the time being, there doesn't seem to be a whole heck of a lot of bad

news, right? If you think about it, what did we have? We had the headwinds of, you know, a war, which I think abated pretty quickly, right? There was a bit of a volatility scare. We've got to go back now six weeks or so. We saw crude oil spike of well above 100. Well, here we are it seems like we we're just kind of, you know, I don't know, flatlined there, whatever the news might be. Inflation readings obviously ran hot over the last couple of weeks and we did see yields get to almost 4.7% in the 10 year. Here we are. Guy, we're recording this, you know, Friday after the close. We're back at 455, right? And a lot of folks just thought this is a level where, you know, we're four at five for a market in the tenure. And it seems like we might be able to bounce around up and down, you know, 20 basis points from there. Maybe that's the new normal, if you will. We have a Fed meeting that's coming up. What, in a few weeks, you know, Kevin Warsh's

first one. And I think the volatility that we might see guy would be around, you know, what the

course is for rates, maybe for the balance of the year. Who knows, you know, right now the S&P is

not pricing a whole heck of a lot of volatility between now in mid-June. So I don't know, do you want to talk a little bit about just kind of what we heard from earnings this past week because maybe that'll be instructive because a lot of the earnings came, what, a month, five weeks after earnings season really started. There were some stuff, I think, to take away, whether it was in video, whether it was Walmart. I look at the earnings season. We had a conversation with Liz Thomas, obviously, of SO-Fi. You know, she's been pretty steadfast in her belief that earnings were going to surprise to the upside. We obviously highlight John Butter's work. His work suggests that earnings are coming a lot better than most of the market participants thought. And you later in the Federal

Reserve, as you mentioned, this time last year, I'm sure there were probably three to five rate cuts

being priced in over the next year, year and a half from the summer of last year. And now as we sit

here, there's an equal likelihood of as a rate hike as there is a cut. And I think the first cut

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