Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Ziziz, Head of Public Policy and Municipal

Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and

financial markets. It's Wednesday, July 3rd at 9 a.m. Eastern.

Last weekend, Presidents Trump and G met the G20 in Osaka, Japan. Their goal was to steer

away from the escalations of trade

protectionism that put both economies at risk. What they came up with was a pause.

For the time being, the US won't go forward with the next round of tariffs

it's been preparing and China will refrain from other actions.

By our count that's the third pause in this year-plus conflict with the prior to ending in higher

tariffs and more economic risk.

That's left investors asking us if this time will be any different.

We're not sure, but it's the lingering uncertainty that matters,

so that this question is even being asked tells you all you need to know about how global trade issues continue the way on the

outlook for markets.

Given the vulnerabilities our economists already see in the global outlook,

the G20 would have had to deliver a reliable path toward tariff de-escalation

to put growth in market risks to rest. We don't think it did. Let's dig in a little deeper.

A pause should be good news, right? It kept the next round of US tariffs from going into place,

something we argued would have made a recession likely in 2020.

But keep in mind that to keep those tariffs away permanently, argued would have made a recession likely in 2020.

But keep in mind that to keep those tariffs away permanently,

...