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The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

MI255 Navigating Bubble 3.0: Is This Time Different? w/ David Hay

The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast Network

Education, Investing, Business

4.6592 Ratings

🗓️ 7 February 2023

⏱️ 61 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Rebecca chats with David Hay. Together, they engage in conversation regarding David's market outlook for 2023, the reasons behind his belief in an earnings recession, and various other topics. David Hay is a longtime investment advisor, where he is currently the Chief Investment Officer at Evergreen Capital. He is also a financial author and recently wrote the book titled: Bubble 3.0: History’s Biggest Financial Bubble. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:   00:00 - Intro 04:51 - Why David believes we will have an earnings recession and markets have yet to price this in.  09:55 - How the tremendous amount of government debt that needs to be issued and rolled over could mean interest rates go up in a recession.  13:41 - Why David believes we could see inflation come back.  17:45 - What impact China’s reopening could have on the US economy and the Fed’s goal of achieving a “soft landing”.  23:47 - David’s outlook on energy and why thinks we could see a third year of outperformance.  27:12 - David’s investment thesis behind USO, Shell PLC and CTRA.  40:18 - David’s outlook on the uranium sector and thesis on Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.  *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members. Check out David’s financial writings: Haymaker. Check out David’s book: Bubble 3.0: History’s Biggest Financial Bubble (audiobook on Awesound) USE DISCOUNT CODE: MINVEST33 Related Episode: Listen to MI231: Bubble 3.0 History’s Biggest Financial Bubble w/ David Hay , or watch the video. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try Robert and Rebecca’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Fiscal.AI Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram Connect with David: Twitter | LinkedIn  HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!  Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to TIP.

0:02.0

The stock market doesn't typically bottom in a major bear market.

0:06.0

And we've got to say, and we've seen some of the stats, I mean, NASDAQ was down 32% last year.

0:11.0

As I mentioned, individual investors overall were down about 38.

0:14.0

So it's been a serious bare market.

0:17.0

Those don't end until the Fed is most of the way through a cutting cycle. I mean,

0:21.5

stocks keep going down even as the Fed's cutting. So all this enthusiasm over when is the Fed

0:28.0

going to stop and then when is the Fed going to start cutting, I think is misplaced.

0:36.4

On today's episode, I'm joined by David Hay, who is the chief investment officer at Evergreen Capital.

0:43.0

He's also the author of the book Bubble 3.0, History's biggest financial bubble,

0:48.2

and writes a weekly substack called Haymaker that comes out every Monday and Friday that I highly recommend checking

0:55.9

out. During this episode, David gives us an update on where we are in Bubble 3.0, why he thinks

1:03.6

it hasn't fully popped yet and there will be likely more pain to come. He also shares how this

1:09.6

time could be different in the sense that interest rates

1:12.4

could still go up even in a recession due to the tremendous amount of government debt that needs

1:17.7

to be newly issued and rolled over and talks about what impact this could all have on markets.

1:23.6

He also discusses why he thinks inflation is going to come back and how to invest in this type of market environment.

1:30.3

And I also get his thoughts on some of the sectors that he is particularly bullish on, including oiling gas and uranium.

1:37.3

And he shares some specific investments in each of the sectors that he thinks are buys and shares his investment thesis behind why.

1:45.9

It's always such a pleasure chatting with David.

1:47.9

And for those that missed our first episode, David came on the show a couple months ago

1:53.6

and talked all about his book, Bubble 3.0, which I highly recommend checking out in reading

...

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