Melt-Up or Melt-Down?

Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

Don McDonald

Business, Education, Investing, How To

4.2 • 680 Ratings

🗓️ 15 July 2025

⏱️ 46 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Don and Tom take on the ever-persistent phrase “This time it’s different,” as Bloomberg and NYT articles suggest AI, financial fragmentation, and inflation have permanently changed the investing game. The duo questions whether these changes actually warrant different investing behavior—or if they’re just the latest in a long line of panics dressed up as paradigm shifts. Along the way, they debate market melt-ups, the logic of diversification, and why equities pay more (hint: it’s not because they’re safe). Listeners call in with questions about ETFs in IRAs, Roth conversions later in life, and tax-savvy asset allocation across accounts. 0:04 Perspective from aging: we’ve heard “this time is different” before 1:58 AI panic, financial fragmentation, and inflation—Bloomberg’s argument 3:31 Don and Tom challenge claims of “new” market conditions 5:08 AI voice cameo: Cath makes her show debut 6:05 What should investors do if things are different? 9:00 NYT’s Jeff Sommer warns of a potential market “melt-up” 10:08 Irrational exuberance: unprofitable stocks soaring 12:57 Why risk still pays: stocks go up and down 15:02 Smooth ≠ profitable: bonds are boring, stocks reward fear 18:23 Listener asks: Why own international if U.S. wins? 20:34 Diversification vs. chasing past performance 23:42 Call: ETFs vs. mutual funds inside retirement accounts 29:36 Call: Should a 79-year-old convert to a Roth? 36:53 Call: Asset location strategy and inherited IRA cash flow 41:36 Don’s final advice: no tax tricks—just make a plan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Race the rudder, raise the sails, raise the sales!
0:05.0	Captain, an unidentified ship approaching. Over.
0:07.0	Roger that. Wait, is that an enterprise sales solution?
0:13.0	Reach sales professionals, not professional sailors.
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0:21.4	To get £100 off your first campaign, go to LinkedIn.com slash lead to claim your credit.
0:26.6	That's LinkedIn.com slash lead. Terms and conditions apply.
0:35.0	Reality radio for a really great future.
0:38.0	We're talking real money.
0:40.3	I'm trying really hard to be optimistic.
0:43.3	And there are so many reasons to be pessimistic about growing older.
0:47.2	But the one thing that's good about it, the one thing that's really good about it is the perspective it gives you.
0:57.0	Hello, everyone.
0:58.1	Welcome to Talking Real Money.
1:00.3	I am Don McDonald in your Talking Real Money, Florida studio.
1:05.4	Tom is in the people wonder where it is still.
1:09.0	The Duval Washington auxiliary power unit.
1:11.6	Oh, that's not true. People come by here all the time. They come by here. The APU is on and
1:16.4	operating for the moment. Welcome to the program. We're so glad you're there. If you'd like to call
1:21.5	us and ask us questions, this part is easy. You just call 855-935-935-8-25-5-8-25-5. Getting the other stuff right can sometimes be a little
1:33.8	bit more complicated because of the way our brains work and the way we're wired. But the,
1:41.4	what is it I'm talking about when I say, us old guys got an advantage over you youngsters in that we have perspective.
	...

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