MB511: How to Use AI, Data, and Market Timing to Gain an “Unfair” Advantage in Multifamily — With Neal Bawa
Financial Freedom with Real Estate Investing
Michael Blank
4.7 • 577 Ratings
🗓️ 16 February 2026
⏱️ 32 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this data-driven episode, Michael Blank is joined by returning guest Neal Bawa, one of the most analytical minds in multifamily real estate. Neal breaks down why the market has failed to rebound as many expected, why 2026 may remain a “muddling” year, and how excess supply, construction costs, and policy decisions are reshaping rents and underwriting assumptions. This conversation offers a clear-eyed, numbers-based outlook on what investors should realistically expect over the next several years.
Key Takeaways
- The market is behaving rationally, not emotionally — despite abundant capital, investors remain cautious due to fundamentals, not fear.
- Three consecutive years of oversupply broke historical patterns, causing Class B and C assets to feel pressure previously thought impossible.
- Rent growth is slowly returning, with projections around ~1.5% in 2026 and normalization closer to 2.5% beyond that.
- Many deals will never return to original pro formas, requiring investors to reset expectations and focus on survivability over returns.
- Rising construction costs from labor shortages and tariffs are likely to suppress new development and benefit existing assets long term.
- 2027–2029 may see meaningful upside, as reduced supply finally meets sustained housing demand.
For full episode show notes visit: https://themichaelblank.com/podcasts/session511/
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hey, dealmaker, welcome to the show where it's all about financial freedom with real estate. |
| 0:03.6 | Let's do this. |
| 0:12.0 | I turn to show we have Neil Bob. He's been on the show before, but it's been a minute. |
| 0:15.1 | And one of the things I like about Neil, he's so data-driven, right? |
| 0:18.0 | He studies hours and hours and hours. |
| 0:22.0 | And, of course, I can't help myself, |
| 0:26.4 | but ask him what he sees in this crystal ball. And we talk about here today. And he kind of called 2026 kind of another muddling year. And then he has a bit more of a positive outlook. But the |
| 0:33.4 | question is why? What is he seeing? And what is the timing of that? What is the confluence |
| 0:37.7 | events that he thinks is going to lead to that outcome? So I would say he's cautiously optimistic. We also talk about Trump policy. We normally don't do politics, but Trump has done some interesting things with regards to real estate. And we talk about that here in the show as well. What are the things that Trump is doing or trying to do that's helping and maybe that's hurting as well? And how is that going to impact multifamily and real estate in general? So I think you're really going to enjoy this show here with Neil Bawa because he's so data-driven, he's got so much data at the tip of his hand. So let's get right into it with Neil Bawa. Neil, welcome to the show today. Thanks for having me back, Mike. |
| 1:11.5 | It's been a while, and so much has changed. |
| 1:14.4 | It has a change, yeah. |
| 1:15.4 | It's great to have the mad scientist, the multifamily back here. |
| 1:18.4 | It's always fascinates me what you're up to because you are a student of the market and data and trends. |
| 1:24.2 | And so really just curious to see what you're, you know, what you're seeing |
| 1:28.1 | right now? What are you seeing right now with multifamily or even the economy? Like, what is your, |
| 1:33.2 | what does it look like for you? You know, to me, the last 12 months in the next six months |
| 1:41.2 | are sort of in this, this limbo, right? |
| 1:44.3 | We expected things to get better. |
| 1:45.9 | We expected cap rates to go down. |
| 1:47.5 | We expected more interest rate cuts. |
| 1:49.6 | And then we expected the market to start having some of those, you know, kindred spirits |
| 1:53.6 | where people are like, we're going to come back and start, you know, putting some |
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