Marie-Hélène Caillol: Political Anticipation of Global Systemic Crisis
Geopolitics & Empire
Geopolitics & Empire
4.2 • 570 Ratings
🗓️ 21 September 2017
⏱️ 30 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The president of the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation discusses their method of political forecasting, the global systemic crisis, the transition from petrodollar to petroyuan, Brexit, the Middle East and more.
Show Notes
Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation
2019 / Brexit: Towards the reintegration of the new UK into a new Europe
Website
http://www.leap2020.net/?lang=en
About GEAB and LEAP
The GEAB is a monthly, affordable, decision and analysis support instrument intended for all those for whom the understanding of future world developments examined from a truly European perspective constitutes a significant part of their work or project: advisors, consultants, financiers, economists, researchers, experts, heads of public institutions, research centres and international businesses, or major NGOs.
GEAB is at the origin of the concept of ‘global systemic crisis’
As early as February 15th, the second issue of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB N°2 announced that an international political, economic and monetary crisis was to be triggered in the course of the last week of March 2006. The public announcement summing up this position toured the world, raising virulent criticisms of course, but above all warm thanks and vivid gratefulness for having opened a debate considered a healthy one.
A tribute: three years before he died on July 2nd 2009, French prospectivist Pierre Gonod analyzed LEAP’s work of anticipation
“LEAP has anticipated a “Global Systemic Crisis”, its calendar and its steps. I haven’t come across any such strong positioning in the microcosm of forward studies for a long time. A brave attitude contrasting with the profession’s current pusillanimity. Years ago already, French forward studies have given up on global anticipation. Why? Probably because of the growing complexity of the world that a simplistic way of thinking cannot grasp. Maybe also because our time is invaded by political correctness and has become unable to envisage radical breaks. LEAP must be praised for changing this….
From January 2006 to October 2012 the GEAB was edited and coordinated by Franck Biancheri, LEAP’s director of studies and strategies and creator of the political anticipation method. Since Franck Biancheri’s death, each issue is edited by Marie-Hélène Caillol and coordinated by Sylvain Périfel, using our research teams to the full.
Contents
- Global systemic crisis watch
- Analysis of topical political, economic and financial subjects
- Identification of relevant pointers, trend analysis, anticipating changes
- Monitoring the Dollar, the US economy, the global economy, financial markets,…; anticipating changes
- Monitoring the Euro, the European economy, developments in European governance…; anticipating changes
- Monitoring the BRICS countries’ emergence, economic indicators, global rebalancing, global governance…; anticipating changes
- Implications of the crisis for security and defence, politics, public opinion…
- Identifying promising future paths
- Strategic recommendations to directors and managers
- Investment advice and asset protection
*Podcast intro music is from the song “The Queens Jig” by “Musicke & Mirth” from their album “Music for Two Lyra Viols”: http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | We are speaking with Marie-Eleine Kailol, the co-founder and president of Leap, the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation, which publishes a fantastic newsletter, Gibb, the Global European Anticipation Bulletin. |
| 0:21.6 | Now, Leap is a rarity in the world of think tanks |
| 0:24.6 | because you are independent and as neutral and objective as one can be, I'd like to think. |
| 0:30.6 | You have some of the best analysis and political forecasts |
| 0:33.6 | because you are extremely serious in your research and sober in your conclusions. |
| 0:38.3 | Could you tell us about the successes Leap has had and about your particular methodology of political anticipation? |
| 0:46.3 | Yes, of course. Thank you very much for the opportunity of this interview and of clarifying some things. And thank you very much for this |
| 0:55.8 | very positive introduction. Yes, indeed, with the leap has very rare characteristics, in particular |
| 1:05.6 | the fact of being independent indeed. It is a citizen-based think tank that doesn't receive any funding and that is solely |
| 1:13.6 | funded by this publication, the Global Europe Anticipation Blotting that you refer to. |
| 1:19.6 | Indeed, we have this, we target this neutrality, objectivity, which is part of our method, |
| 1:25.6 | this method of political anticipation |
| 1:28.0 | indeed, which definitely tries as much as possible to get away and to take a perspective |
| 1:35.6 | from opinions and judgments and look rather at the systemic dimension of current evolutions. |
| 1:45.0 | We've been following, indeed, since 2006, not following, because we don't follow, we anticipate |
| 1:53.0 | so we're ahead. |
| 1:54.0 | We've been anticipating what we called as early from the first edition, the first number of this Gib, the Global Systemic Crisis, |
| 2:04.0 | which since therefore, as I said, January 2006, when we launched the first issue, has been |
| 2:12.2 | anticipating what we called, as I said, the global systemic crisis based on a basic anticipation, which was the collapse of the, what we called, as I said, the global systemic crisis, based on a basic anticipation, which |
| 2:19.6 | was the collapse of what we, what Frank Bionkei at the time called, I might come back on this, |
| 2:25.2 | the fall of the dollar wall in a mirror effect with the fall of the Berlin Wall, of course, as the last step of the major global transition |
| 2:38.2 | out of the logics of the 20th century, post-second World War, logics, the Cold War, etc. |
... |
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